---

Working Paper

Applying Binomial/Normal Models to Small Area Estimation

2013

In this paper, we focus on modeling county poverty rates of school-aged (5-17) children.

---

---

Working Paper

Population and Sampling Design for Small-Area Model Evaluation

2013

We evaluate models by a simulation study tailored more closely to the source data that will be used in production.

---

---

Working Paper

An Empirical Study on Using Previous American Community Survey Data...

April 25, 2012

An Empirical Study on Using Previous American Community Survey Data Versus Census 2000 Data in SAIPE Models for Poverty Estimates

---

---

Working Paper

Notes on a Multivariate Fay-Herriot Model with AR(1) Model Errors

April 19, 2012

This paper talks about the Multivariate Fay-Herriot Model.

---

---

Working Paper

A Bayesian Zero-One Inflated Beta Model for Small Area Shrinkage Est.

2012

We evaluate revisions to a Bayesian beta regression model proposed in Wieczorek and Hawala (2011), for U.S. county poverty rates.

---

---

Working Paper

Hierarchical Bayes Estimation of Poverty Rates

2012

In practice many applications of small area models use a `Normal-Normal-Linear' assumption, i.e., a normality assumption for the design-based survey estimates.

---

---

Working Paper

Time-Series Cross-Sectional Approach for Small Area Poverty Model

2012

Current production models of poverty utilized by the Census Bureau for the SAIPE program generally incorporate only a single-year of inputs.

---

---

Working Paper

Use of Labor Market Indicators in Small Area Poverty Models

2012

Current production models of poverty and income utilized by the Census Bureau for the SAIPE program do not utilize labor market indicators.

---

---

Working Paper

A Geographic Comparison of Child and Adult Poverty from 2006 to 2009

March 2011

The poverty rate for children historically has been higher than the adult poverty rate.

---

---

Working Paper

A Bayesian Zero-One Inflated Beta Model for Estimating Poverty

2011

We propose and evaluate a Bayesian beta regression model for U.S. county poverty rates.

---

---

Working Paper

A Simulation Study of the Distribution of Fay’s Estimator

2011

Small area estimation with area level models requires variance estimates of the direct survey point estimates being modeled.

---

---

Working Paper

Methods of Estimating Poverty for School-Age Children

2010

This paper looks at two different approaches to modeling that address the problem of small samples in small areas.

---

---

Working Paper

Serial Comparisons in Small Domain Models

2010

The U.S. Census Bureau's SAIPE program produces model-based estimates for small geographic areas.

---

---

Working Paper

Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates Program

2010

The US Census Bureau's SAIPE Program uses an empirical Bayes estimation method to produce annual estimates of the poverty rates.

---

---

Working Paper

Variance Modeling in the U.S. SAIPE Program for the ACS

2010

In SAIPE program of the U.S. Census Bureau, one of the challenges is the estimation of sampling variances of the direct survey weighted estimators.

---

---

Working Paper

Methodology for Testing for a Rise in State Child Poverty Rates

April 2009

The US Census Bureau’s Small Area Estimates Branch annually provides the ACF in the HHS with model-based estimates of the number of children in poverty.

---

---

Working Paper

Variation for the Minimum Change School District Poverty Estimates

November 21, 2008

This paper proposes a method that can be used to calculate the coefficient of variation for estimates of the number of children in poverty for school districts.

---

---

Working Paper

Examining Sensitivity of Small Area Inferences to Uncertainty

2008

Small area estimation based on area level models typically assumes that sampling error variances for the direct survey small area estimates are known.

---

---

Working Paper

SAIPE County Poverty Models Using Data from the ACS

2008

The US Census Bureau's SAIPE program produces model-based estimates of income and poverty using data from Census 2000, ACS, and administrative records.

---

---

Working Paper

Use of ACS Data to Produce SAIPE Model-Based Estimates of Poverty

December 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau's SAIPE program has produced median household income estimates and poverty by age group estimates for U.S. states…

---

---

Working Paper

An Empirical Study on Using CPS and ACS Survey Data in Bivariate St...

November 16, 2007

An Empirical Study on Using CPS and ACS Survey Data in Bivariate State Poverty Models

---

---

Working Paper

Small Area Estimation of School District Child Population and Pover...

September 26, 2007

Small Area Estimation of School District Child Population and Poverty: Studying Use of IRS Income Tax Data

---

---

Working Paper

Methodology for Testing for a Rise in Child Poverty Rate: 2003 to 2004

March 26, 2007

The US Census Bureau’s Small Area Estimates Branch annually provides the ACF in the HHS with model-based estimates of the number of children in poverty.

---

---

Working Paper

Median Income and Earnings Estimates: Comparison of ACS and CPS

March 12, 2007

Comparison of national estimates of income between the 2004 and 2005 ACS and the 2005 and 2006 CPS ASEC.

---

---

Working Paper

Evaluation of Poverty Estimates: A Comparison of the ACS and the CPS

June 2006

The data analysis in this report focuses on comparisons of national estimates of poverty between the 2003 ACS and the 2004 CPS ASEC (income year 2003).

---

---

Working Paper

Methodology for Testing for a Rise in Child Poverty Rate

March 15, 2006

The US Census Bureau’s Small Area Estimates Branch annually provides the ACF in the HHS with model-based estimates of the number of children in poverty.

---

---

Working Paper

EITC Participation Data in the SAIPE Program’s County Poverty Model

2006

Our main interest in using the EITC data is improving model performance, in terms of goodness of fit, for counties with weak participation in programs.

---

---

Working Paper

Estimating School District Poverty with Reduced-Price Lunch Data

2006

This research explores the use of free and reduced-price lunch (FRPL) eligibility counts for estimating poverty in school districts.

---

---

Working Paper

Using the t-distribution in Small Area Estimation

2006

The US Census Bureau's SAIPE program produces poverty ratio estimates from Bayesian treatment of a Fay-Herriot model applied to direct state poverty ratio.

---

---

Working Paper

t-distribution to Deal with Outliers in Small Area Estimation

2006

Small area estimation often applies linear models, such as the Fay-Herriot (1979) model, to direct survey estimates for the small areas.

---

---

Working Paper

Methodology for Change Variance Estimates: 2000 and 2001

March 07, 2005

The U.S. Census Bureau SAIPE currently uses an empirical Bayes estimation method to produce biennial intercensal estimates of the proverty rates.

---

---

Working Paper

Methodology for Change Variance Estimates: 2001 and 2002

March 07, 2005

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Area Estimates Branch annually provides the Administration for ACF in the HHS with model-based estimates of child poverty.

---

---

Working Paper

Evaluation of School District Poverty Estimates

2005

The US Census Bureau created the SAIPE program to provide more current estimates of selected income and poverty statistics than the recent decennial census.

---

---

Working Paper

Identifying and Analyzing Geographic Change to School Districts

2005

The US Census Bureau's SAIPE Program produces poverty and income estimates for states, counties, and school districts on an annual basis.

---

---

Working Paper

Using Medicaid Participant Data in the Est of County Poverty Levels

2005

The US Census Bureau's SAIPE program produces income and poverty estimates using decennial census data, household survey data, and administrative records.

---

---

Working Paper

Report 5: Comparing Economic Characteristics With Census 2000

May 2004

Fifth in a series of reports about implementing the ACS: comparing economic characteristics between ACS and Census 2000.

---