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Using the t-distribution in Small Area Estimation: An Application to SAIPE State Poverty Models
Using the t-distribution in Small Area Estimation: An Application to SAIPE State Poverty Models
Introduction
The Census Bureau’s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program produces state age-group (0-4, 5-17, 18-64, 65+) poverty ratio estimates from Bayesian treatment (Bell 1999) of a Fay-Herriot model (Fay and Herriot 1979) applied to direct state poverty ratio estimates from the Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC, formerly known as the CPS March income supplement). The models borrow information from regression variables related to poverty that are constructed from administrative records data, as well as age group poverty ratio estimates from the previous decennial census. Estimates are identified by the “income year” (IY), which refers to the year for which income is reported in the ASEC. Since 2001, the CPS ASEC sample size has been about 100,000 households.
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Page Last Revised - October 8, 2021
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