The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey collects monthly data on shipments, inventories, new orders, and unfilled orders from manufacturing companies.  The orders, as well as the shipments and inventory data, are widely used and are valuable tools for analysts of business cycle conditions, including members of the Council of Economic Advisers, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, Conference Board, and the business community.

New orders serve as an indicator of future production commitments, and the data are direct inputs into the leading economic indicator series.  New orders, as reported in the monthly M3 press release, are derived by adding shipments to the net change in the unfilled orders from the previous month. The ratio of unfilled orders to shipments is an important indicator of pressure on manufacturing capacity.

The monthly M3 estimates are based on a relatively small panel of domestic manufacturers and reflect primarily the month-to-month changes of large companies.  There is a clear need for periodic benchmarking of the M3 estimates to reflect the manufacturing universe.  The Census of Manufactures, which is conducted every five years and covers the manufacturing sector, provides annual benchmarks for the shipments and inventories data in the monthly M3 survey.  In the years between Economic Censuses, the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) provides these annual benchmarks.  The Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders (M3UFO) Survey provides the annual benchmarks for the unfilled orders data.

The industries selected for the M3UFO survey are those which the U.S. Census Bureau has determined to maintain considerable unfilled orders.  Annual unfilled orders benchmarks are produced from the M3UFO survey for 47 industry categories encompassing the following major groups in manufacturing:

Primary Metals
Fabricated Metal Products
Machinery
Computers and Electronic Products
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, and Components
Transportation Equipment
Furniture and Related Products
Miscellaneous Products

The M3UFO survey is necessary to ensure future accuracy of the new orders data in the M3 survey and to determine which NAICS industries continue to maintain unfilled orders.

For Mandatory Surveys:

YOUR RESPONSE IS REQUIRED BY LAW.  Census Bureau authorizes this collection.  Title 13 United States Code, Sections 224 and 225 require businesses and other organizations that receive this questionnaire to answer the questions and return the report to the U.S. Census Bureau.  By Section 9 of this same law, YOUR CENSUS REPORT IS CONFIDENTIAL.  It may be seen only by persons sworn to uphold the confidentiality of Census Bureau information and may be used only for statistical purposes.  Further, copies retained in respondents’ files are immune from legal process.

The Census Bureau uses the information provided by this survey to develop universe estimates of unfilled orders and then adjusts the monthly M3 unfilled orders data to these levels.  The benchmarked unfilled orders levels are used to derive estimates of new orders received by manufacturers.  New orders are derived using the following formula:

   NEW ORDERS (current) = SHIPMENTS (current) + [UNFILLED ORDERS (current) - UNFILLED ORDERS (prior)]

Information quality is an integral part of the pre-dissemination review of the information disseminated by the Census Bureau (fully described in the Census Bureau’s Information Quality Guidelines).  Information quality is also integral to the information collections conducted by the Census Bureau and is incorporated in the clearance process required by the Paperwork Reduction Act.

• Key statistics produced

The key statistics produced for the M3UFO survey are described above.  (see the Primary Customers and Users section)

• Frequency of data products
  

The Census Bureau conducts this survey annually to provide unfilled orders benchmarks for the M3 survey.

• Geographic detail
  

N/A

• Publication level of detail
  

Estimates from the M3UFO survey are published at M3 industry category level (47 M3 industry categories in scope of the M3UFO survey).

• Data dissemination
  

Estimates from the M3UFO survey are published as part of the annual benchmark release for the M3 survey.

The M3UFO survey estimates are published in the M3 Benchmark report in May of the year following data collection.

You may contact us by phone at 301.763.1779.