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Evaluating Components of International Migration: Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000

Working Paper Number POP-WP058
Kevin E. Deardorff and Lisa M. Blumerman
Component ID: #ti647566937

Synopsis

On March 1, 2001, the U.S. Census Bureau issued the recommendation of the Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy (ESCAP) that the Census 2000 Redistricting Data not be adjusted based on the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.). By mid-October 2001, the Census Bureau had to recommend whether Census 2000 data should be adjusted for future uses, such as the census long form data products, post-censal population estimates, and demographic survey controls. In order to inform that decision, the ESCAP requested that further research be conducted.

Between March and September 2001, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPE) research project addressed the discrepancy between the demographic analysis data and the A.C.E. adjusted estimates of the population. Specifically, the research examined the historical levels of the components of population change to address the possibility that the 1990 Demographic Analysis understated the national population and assessed whether demographic analysis had not captured the full population growth between 1990 and 2000. Assumptions regarding the components of international migration (specifically, emigration, temporary migration, legal migration, and unauthorized migration) contain the largest uncertainty in the demographic analysis estimates. Therefore, evaluating the components of international migration was a critical activity in the DAPE project.

This report focuses on the evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau's estimates of the foreign-born population by migrant status in 2000. In particular, we assess the assumptions used to estimate the various types of international migrants (legal immigrants, temporary migrants, unauthorized migrants, and emigrants) and the effect of alternative assumptions in estimating the size of the foreign-born population. By reviewing alternative assumptions about the types of international migrants, we assess the completeness of coverage of the foreign-born population in Census 2000, and the reasonableness of the resulting Demographic Analysis (DA) estimates.

DISCLAIMER:

This paper reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by Census Bureau Staff. It has undergone a more limited review than official Census Bureau publications. This report is released to inform interested parties of research and to encourage discussion.

Component ID: #ti1808543895

Table of Contents

SYNOPSIS

INTRODUCTION

BACKGROUND

Defining the Components of the Foreign-Born Population

Legal Immigrants
Foreign-Born Emigrants
Mortality
Temporary Migrants
Residual Foreign-Born

DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Data Sets Used for Calculations
Review of Previous Methodology Used to Calculate the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status
Evaluation of the Methodology Used to Calculate the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status

Evaluation Question 1
Evaluation Question 2
Evaluation Question 3

RESULTS OF ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

Assumptions for the DAPE Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population
Assumptions for the DAPE Lower-Bound Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population
Assumptions for the DAPE Upper-Bound Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population
Implications and Reasonableness

REFERENCES

APPENDIX 1: EQUATIONS FOR DAPE

Equations for Estimating the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status

Equation A. DAPE Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status
Equation B. DAPE Lower-Bound Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status
Equation C. DAPE Upper-Bound Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status

APPENDIX 2: DAPE WORKING PAPER SERIES BIBLIOGRAPHY


List of Tables

Table 1: Census Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: Baseline

Table 2: "True" Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: Baseline

Table 3: "True" Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: DAPE Estimate

Table 4: "True" Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: Lower-Bound DAPE Estimate

Table 5: "True" Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: Upper-Bound DAPE Estimate

Table 6: Census Level Undercoverage Rate Assumptions for the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status: 2000

Table 7: Effect of Alternative Assumptions for the Foreign-Born Population on Demographic Analysis Estimates

 


 

Component ID: #ti1451074778

INTRODUCTION

This report presents a discussion of the components of the foreign-born population and focuses on the findings from the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPE) research project. In particular, we assess the assumptions used to estimate the various types of international migrants (legal immigrants, temporary migrants, unauthorized migrants, and emigrants) and the effect of alternative assumptions in estimating the size of the foreign-born population. By reviewing alternative assumptions about the types of international migrants, we assess the completeness of coverage of the foreign-born population in Census 2000, and the reasonableness of the resulting Demographic Analysis (DA) estimates.

Component ID: #ti1451074779

BACKGROUND

The foreign-born population is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as people who are not U.S. citizens at birth.

Defining the Components of the Foreign-Born Population (FB)

The foreign-born consist of legal immigrants, temporary migrants, and unauthorized migrants (Deardorff, 2001b). Stated as an equation, the foreign-born population is defined as:

FB = [L - (M + E)] + T + R

where

FB = Foreign-born population
L = Legal immigrants
M = Mortality to legal immigrants
E = Emigration of legal immigrants
T = Temporary (legal) migrants
R = Residual foreign-born (unauthorized and quasi-legal migrants)

For the foreign-born population, we estimated demographic characteristics (age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin) for implied legal status (legal immigrants, temporary migrants, and residual foreign-born) by place of birth, defined for DAPE as 40 unique groupings of countries (see Mulder et al., 2001).

Legal Immigrants (L)

The Immigration and Nationality Act defines legal immigration as the process by which a non-citizen of the United States is granted legal permanent residence. A non-citizen with legal permanent residence status may remain in the country, be employed, travel freely, and seek naturalization to become a U.S. citizen. Legal immigrants, as categorized by the Census Bureau, include new arrivals to the United States, people adjusting their migrant status to legal permanent resident (including Special Agricultural Workers (SAWs) and pre-1982 entrants (LAWs)), asylees, and refugees (Perry et al., 2001).

We estimated the number of legal immigrants using Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) data. In 2000, the estimate of survived legal immigrants ([L - (M + E)]) was 21,612,023.

Foreign-Born Emigrants (E)

Foreign-born legal emigrants were residents of the United States who departed from the United States to reside abroad. Unauthorized migrants, migrants from Puerto Rico, temporary migrants, and natives (U.S. citizens at birth) are excluded from this population universe. For purposes of the DAPE project, we estimated the number of emigrants from a residual methodology using data on the foreign-born population by period of entry from two consecutive censuses (Mulder et al., 2001). We used the resulting number of emigrants to calculate rates of emigration. Although these emigration rates reflect the behavior of the entire foreign-born population, they were used as a reasonable proxy for the legal immigrant population. By applying these emigration rates to the legal immigrant population annually from 1990 to 2000, we estimated the number of emigrants from the legal population between 1990 and 2000.

Mortality (M)

Survival rates for the legal immigrant population were calculated from life tables of the total population by sex and single year of age (Mulder et al., 2001). Although these survival rates were calculated for the total population, they were used as a reasonable proxy for the legal immigrant population. By applying these survival rates to the legal immigrant population, we estimated the number of deaths that occurred to this population between 1990 and 2000.

Temporary Migrants (T)

The Immigration and Nationality Act defines temporary migrants (also referred to as nonimmigrants) as aliens admitted to the United States for a specified purpose and temporary period, but not for permanent residence. Temporary migrants, as categorized by the Census Bureau and defined for the remainder of this paper, include those who would be considered residents of the United States for purposes of the decennial census, including foreign students and temporary workers, but excluding tourists and business workers (see Cassidy and Pearson, 2001).

We estimated temporary migrants using INS data. In 2000, the estimate of temporary migrants was 1,200,000.

Residual Foreign-Born (R)

The residual foreign-born, as categorized by the Census Bureau, include the foreign-born who were not otherwise accounted for in a legal migration component, whether or not they were counted in the census (Costanzo et al,. 2001). Although the residual foreign-born include mostly unauthorized migrants, it also includes some categories of legal (or "quasi-legal") migrants for whom data were not available. Later in our evaluation section, we have attempted to account for this shortcoming by separating the residual foreign-born into known components of the foreign-born (e.g., immigrants such as asylee applicants who were in a processing backlog at the INS, most of whom will become legal permanent residents) and the implied unauthorized population (Costanzo et al., 2001; Deardorff, 2001a; Deardorff, 2001b). Therefore, the residual foreign-born is actually:

R = R1 + R2

where

R1 = Known components of the residual foreign-born (mostly quasi-legal migrants)
R2 = Implied unauthorized migrants

We estimate known components of the residual foreign-born (R1) using INS data. In 2000, the estimate of this group was 1,700,000. We estimate unauthorized migrants (R2) by applying undercount rate assumptions to the part of this population counted in the census.

Researchers have not agreed on how many unauthorized migrants were missed in the census. However, after reviewing research conducted by independent migration experts, and after reviewing the results for hard-to-count populations from the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.), we assumed a 15-percent average undercount for the foreign-born enumerated in the census and categorized as residual foreign-born (see Table 1). Applying this average 15-percent undercount to the residual foreign-born counted in the census, we estimated the following "true" level of foreign-born by migrant status in 2000 (see Table 2).

Table 1: Census Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: Baseline

Migrant Status Number  
Foreign-Born Population 31,098,945
   Survived Legal Immigrants (implied) 21,612,023
   Temporary Migrants1 781,507
   Residual Foreign-Born 8,705,419

1Estimates of temporary migrants were calculated from the census using previous census methodology. Components of the foreign-born do not add to the total foreign-born due to rounding in underlying calculations.

Table 2: "True" Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: Baseline

Migrant Status Number  
Foreign-Born Population 32,635,199
   Survived Legal Immigrants (implied) 21,612,023
   Temporary Migrants1 781,507
   Residual Foreign-Born 10,241,669

1For the Baseline estimates, we assumed complete census coverage for temporary migrants. For subsequent scenarios, we assumed a "true" level estimate of temporary migrants of 1,200,000.

The demographic analysis estimates presented in detail in the main section of this report used the levels of temporary migrants and unauthorized migrants (counted within the residual foreign-born) shown above. These levels represent the results of detailed analysis and the application of detailed age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin distributions.

Component ID: #ti1451074780

DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Previous estimates of the foreign-born population by migrant status used a variety of often unrelated data sets. Using different data sets to estimate types of international migrants is problematic given the residual methodology used previously and in this analysis. To minimize inconsistencies, we used an integrated approach to calculate the migrant status of the foreign-born. Additionally, we generated standardized files for the 1990 Census and Census 2000 data which were used for the calculations of the number of each type of international migrant. We also used a standard method to impute values for missing variables and characteristics in these files.

Data Sets Used for Calculations

For temporary migrants, data from the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey were used as a proxy for Census 2000 data that were not yet available. A review and evaluation of these data suggest they are a reasonable approximation for yet unavailable detailed Census 2000 sample data (Malone, 2001; Deardorff and Malone, 2001).

For 1990, we used the census sample edited detail file modified to remove the category of "some other race." Missing data for country of birth were imputed using responses to the country of birth question, independently for each state. For 2000, we used preliminary census sample data, based on intermediate weighting schemes and editing procedures, and modified to match the 1990 racial categories (Malone, 2001). The preliminary Census 2000 sample data were available only for certain variables, including age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, country of birth, citizenship, and year of entry into the United States.

Using these data sets, we estimated the foreign-born in 2000 by migrant status (legal immigrants, temporary migrants, and a residual component consisting of quasi-legal and unauthorized migrants) by DA race (Black, NonBlack), sex, and A.C.E. age groups (ages 0-17, 18-29, 30-49, and 50 and older). In addition, we estimated the number of foreign-born by migrant status, sex, A.C.E. age groups, and mutually exclusive race/ethnic categories (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native, and Hispanic).

Review of Previous Methodology Used to Calculate the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status

Historically, the Census Bureau employed demographic analysis to evaluate the accuracy of census results. In the course of these evaluations, the Census Bureau made assumptions regarding the level of legal migrants and the residual foreign born. Based on previous research about census coverage of these populations, the Census Bureau traditionally assumed a higher coverage rate for legal immigrants than for the residual foreign born (Costanzo et al., 2001). After the 1990 Census, the Census Bureau expanded estimates of international migrants to include temporary migrants to the United States, as previous estimates of temporary migrants were limited to the number of foreign students in the country. A primary reason for estimating temporary migrants was to account for this group independently of the unauthorized population in the decennial census. Other reasons were to develop better demographic characteristics of the foreign-born population (specifically, temporary migrants do not age during the decade because of legal requirements restricting length of stay in the United States), and to evaluate the upcoming results of Census 2000.

A major component of the DAPE project was to validate estimates of the number of international migrants (legal immigrants, temporary migrants, and unauthorized migrants) in 1990. After our validation work, we used the same methodologies to develop estimates of the number of international migrants for 2000 using available data. Independent teams were formed to evaluate work on each of these components of international migration. For detailed descriptions of how the teams revised and improved previous estimates, see Costanzo et al., 2001; Mulder et al., 2001; Cassidy and Pearson, 2001; and Perry et al., 2001.

Evaluation of the Methodology Used to Calculate the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status

Although researchers have routinely adjusted census level estimates of unauthorized migrants to account for those missed in the census, they usually do not adjust explicitly for similar undercounts to the legal immigrant and temporary migrant populations (Passel, 2001; Bean et al., 2001).

To assess the robustness of these levels to varying assumptions about the undercount of legal immigrants and temporary migrants, we developed several scenarios. As discussed later, the application of alternative assumptions results in different implied total foreign-born populations by migrant status. Nevertheless, the totals are not different enough to greatly affect the total DA estimates. Thus, while the results based on the 15-percent assumptions discussed above could vary, the variations would not be substantively different.

This evaluation of the methodology used to calculate the components of international migration addressed several questions:

  1. Was the assumption of complete coverage of legal immigrants and temporary migrants in the census reasonable?

  2. Was the assumption of 15-percent undercount for all residual foreign-born reasonable?

  3. Was the resulting estimate of the residual foreign-born a reasonable approximation of unauthorized migrants?

Evaluation Question 1

When assigning the foreign-born counted in the census to migration statuses, previous researchers at the Census Bureau assumed complete (100 percent) coverage of legal immigrants and temporary migrants in the decennial census. Because the residual foreign born were calculated in the residual category (foreign-born population minus the sum of legal immigrants and temporary migrants), the number of foreign-born counted in the census who were categorized as the residual foreign born would be even higher if the assumption of complete coverage of legal immigrants and temporary migrants was dropped.

Researchers studying the foreign-born, both inside and outside the Census Bureau, agreed that an assumption of complete coverage for legal immigrants and temporary migrants was unreasonable (Deardorff and Cresce, 2001). A change to this assumption of full coverage in the census would mean fewer foreign-born being categorized as legal immigrants and temporary migrants, and more foreign-born being categorized as residual foreign born during census level calculations.

Evaluation Question 2

Due to time constraints of the DAPE project, we assumed an average 15-percent undercount rate for the residual foreign-born, before meeting with external experts on international migration, even though we expected rates to differ for all groups (legal immigrants and temporary migrants, as well as the residual foreign born) and to vary by demographic characteristics (age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin) and country of birth. Although no consensus emerged on the appropriate levels of undercount to assume, experts we consulted agreed that the previously assumed average undercount of 15 percent was probably too high, especially given the undercount rates of other hard-to-count groups from Census 2000 (e.g., the undercount rate for Hispanic renters was less than 5 percent), (see Hogan and Whitford, 2001). Additionally, a 15-percent undercount represented the midpoint of previously used rates, but evaluation results suggest census coverage improved from the 1990 Census to Census 2000.

Evaluation Question 3

Most importantly, researchers were concerned about the possible implications of not correcting the assumptions discussed above. Although an explanation that some legal immigrants and temporary migrants were categorized as residual foreign-born was helpful, the media and policy makers could mistakenly interpret our results for the residual foreign-born as a "best" guess of the size of the unauthorized migrant population. Furthermore, because we had not included "quasi-legal" immigrants (e.g., refugees who had not adjusted to legal permanent resident status because of processing backlogs at INS) in the legal immigrant category, additional foreign-born were included in this residual category. For a more detailed discussion of these populations, see Costanzo et al., 2001.

Based on these discussions, we decided to produce alternative undercount assumptions for the foreign-born population and to evaluate the initial, detailed set of estimates against the alternatives. In addition, we are emphasizing that the residual group (as identified by our initial equation) is not an accurate portrayal of the unauthorized foreign-born. Finally, we identified additional information about the foreign-born population to separate the residual foreign-born category into two components: known components of the foreign-born (or those identified as quasi-legal) and the implied unauthorized population (Costanzo et al., 2001; Deardorff and Cresce, 2001).

Component ID: #ti1451074782

RESULTS OF ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

Table 1 and Table 2 show estimates of the foreign-born population by migrant status using our baseline estimates that assume a 15-percent undercount of the residual foreign-born. For the remainder of this report, we calculated the foreign-born population by migrant status using alternative assumptions about census level coverage of these populations. In addition to using different coverage assumptions, we attempt also to separate the residual foreign-born into two components: known components (mostly quasi-legal migrants) and the implied unauthorized migrant population.

To address our initial assumption about complete (100 percent) coverage of legal immigrants and temporary migrants in the census, we estimated undercount rates for both groups, then applied those undercount rates to the census level calculations. Although an endless number of possibilities existed for alternative undercount scenarios, we attempted to create a lower and upper bound around our most reasonable assumptions, which will be referred to as the "DAPE Estimate" in this report (Deardorff, 2001a).

Assumptions for the DAPE Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population

Beginning with a preliminary census level foreign-born population of 31,098,945, we assumed a 2-percent undercount rate for legal immigrants, a 35-percent undercount rate for temporary migrants, a 5-percent undercount rate for known components of the residual foreign-born, and a 12.5-percent undercount rate for implied unauthorized migrants (see Table 6 and Equation A). [Table 3 through Table 5 show data with the underlying estimates of the foreign-born population by migrant status consistent with the undercount rate assumptions shown in Table 6.]

For this scenario, the undercount rate of legal immigrants was assumed to be about twice as high as for the total household population; the undercount rate of temporary migrants was calculated based on the difference between the number we identified from our estimate (Cassidy and Pearson, 2001) and the number of temporary migrants identified by INS, or 35 percent; the undercount rate of known components of the residual foreign-born was assumed to be about 4 times as high as for the total household population (or slightly higher than the rate for Hispanic renters); and the undercount rate of unauthorized migrants was assumed to be approximately 10 times the rate for the total household population, or approximately 3 times the undercount rate for Hispanic renters (see Hogan and Whitford, 2001).

Table 3 shows the resulting foreign-born population by migrant status.

Table 3: "True" Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: DAPE Estimate

Migrant Status Number  
Foreign-Born 33,091,988
   Survived Legal Immigrants 21,612,023
   Temporary Migrants 1,200,000
   Residual Foreign-Born 10,279,965
      Known Components 1,789,474
      Unauthorized (Implied) 8,490,491
Assumptions for the DAPE Lower-Bound Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population

Beginning with a census level foreign-born population of 31,098,945, for the lower-bound estimate, we assumed a 1-percent undercount rate for legal immigrants, a 7-percent undercount rate for temporary migrants, a 1-percent undercount rate for known components of the residual foreign-born, and a 10-percent undercount rate for implied unauthorized migrants, as shown in Table 6 and Equation B.

For this scenario, the undercount rate of legal immigrants was assumed to be about the same as for the total household population; the undercount rate of temporary migrants was assumed to be almost twice as high as for Hispanic renters; the undercount rate of known components of the residual foreign-born was assumed to be about the same as for the total household population; and the undercount rate of unauthorized migrants was assumed to be approximately 8 times the rate for the total household population, or a little more than twice the undercount rate for Hispanic renters (see Hogan and Whitford, 2001).

Table 4 shows the resulting foreign-born population by migrant status.

Table 4: "True" Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: Lower-Bound DAPE Estimate

Migrant Status Number  
Foreign-Born 32,174,511
   Survived Legal Immigrants 21,612,023
   Temporary Migrants 1,200,000
   Residual Foreign-Born 9,362,488
      Known Components 1,700,000
      Unauthorized (Implied) 7,662,488
Assumptions for the DAPE Upper-Bound Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population

Beginning with a census level foreign-born population of 31,098,945, for the upper-bound estimate, we assumed a 2-percent undercount rate for legal immigrants, a 35-percent undercount rate for temporary migrants, a 5-percent undercount rate for known components of the residual foreign-born, and a 15-percent undercount rate for implied unauthorized migrants (see Table 6 and Equation C).

For this scenario, the undercount rate of legal immigrants was assumed to be about twice as high as for the total household population; the undercount rate of temporary migrants was calculated based on the difference between the number we identified from our estimate (Cassidy and Pearson, 2001) and the number of temporary migrants identified by INS; the undercount rate of known components of the residual foreign-born was assumed to be about 4 times as high as for the total household population (or slightly higher than the rate for Hispanic renters); and the undercount rate of unauthorized migrants was assumed to be approximately 12 times the rate for the total household population, or nearly 4 times the undercount rate for Hispanic renters (see Hogan and Whitford, 2001).

Table 5 shows the resulting foreign-born population by migrant status.

Table 5: "True" Level Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000: Upper-Bound DAPE Estimate

Migrant Status Number  
Foreign-Born 33,347,473
   Survived Legal Immigrants 21,612,023
   Temporary Migrants 1,200,000
   Residual Foreign-Born 10,535,450
      Known Components 1,700,000
      Unauthorized (Implied) 8,835,450
Implications and Reasonableness

The estimates of the foreign-born population differ because of alternative assumptions about coverage rates by migrant status. The implied total undercount for the foreign-born population ranges from 3.3 percent using the assumptions for the lower bound to 6.7 percent using the assumptions for the upper bound (see Table 6). These ranges are similar to the undercount rates (as measured by the A.C.E.) of approximately 3 percent for Hispanics and approximately 4 percent for Hispanic renters.

Table 6: Census Level Undercoverage Rate Assumptions for the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status: 2000

Lower Bound "DAPE" Upper Bound
Migrant Status DAPE Estimate
Foreign-Born 32,174,511 33,091,988 33,347,473
   Survived Legal 1% 2% 2%
   Temporary1 7% 35% 35%
   Residual Foreign-Born      
      Known Components 1% 5% 5%
      Unauthorized (Implied)2 10% 12.5% 15%
       
Average Undercount Rate3 3.3% 6.0% 6.7%

1 The 35-percent undercount assumption for temporary migrants is consistent with the Census Bureau's estimate using 1990 methodology. This methodology does not identify temporary migrants in certain visa categories that did not exist until after 1990.
2 The undercount assumptions for unauthorized migrants are for "true" level, not census level.
3 Average undercount rate = ( (estimated foreign-born - Census foreign-born) / estimated foreign-born) x 100. The Census foreign-born population was 31,098,945.

The "true" level for the foreign-born would be 3.3 percent higher than census level using the assumptions for the Lower-Bound DAPE Estimate; 6.0 percent higher using assumptions for the DAPE Estimate; and 6.7 percent higher using assumptions for the Upper-Bound DAPE Estimate.

Using these new results for the total foreign-born population to calculate DA estimates results in figures lower than the A.C.E. total population of 284,683,782 (see Table 7). Including the Lower-Bound DAPE Estimate of the foreign-born in the calculation of the DA population would result in an estimate of 281,299,186, or more than 3 million people lower than the A.C.E. total population. The DA population would be 282,216,664 using the DAPE Estimate for the foreign-born, or more than 2 million people lower than the A.C.E. total population. Similarly, the DA population would be 282,472,149 using the Upper-Bound DAPE Estimate for the foreign-born, also more than 2 million lower than the corresponding A.C.E. total population. In summary, despite the use of alternative assumptions in these scenarios, resulting estimates of the foreign-born population do not explain the different total populations calculated by DA and the A.C.E.

Table 7: Effect of Alternative Assumptions for the Foreign-Born Population on Demographic Analysis Estimates

Lower Bound "DAPE" Upper Bound
Component "DAPE" Estimate
DA Total Population 281,299,186 282,216,664 282,472,149
Foreign-Born      
   Number 32,174,511 33,091,988 33,347,473
   Percent 11.44 11.73 11.81
Implied Net Undercount of DA Total Population Relative to Census 2000      
   Number -122,720 794,758 1,050,243
   Percent of DA Total -0.04 0.28 0.37

Notes: The Census 2000 Population is 281,421,906. A minus sign denotes a net overcount.

Component ID: #ti1451074781

REFERENCES

Bean, Frank, Rodolfo V. Corona, Rodolfo Turain, Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield, and Jennifer V.W. Van Hook. 2001. "Circular, Invisible, and Ambiguous Migrants: Components of Difference in Estimates of the Number of Unauthorized Mexican Migrants in the United States." Demography 38 (3): 411-22.

Cassidy, Rachel and Lucinda Pearson. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Temporary (Legal) Migrants. (Population Division Working Paper #60) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Costanzo, Joseph, Cynthia Davis, Caribert Irazi, Daniel Goodkind, and Roberto Ramirez. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: The Residual Foreign-Born. (Population Division Working Paper #61) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Deardorff, Kevin. 2001a. "Alternative Assumptions for the Foreign-Born Population," presentation for the U.S. Census Bureau's Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy.

Deardorff, Kevin. 2001b. "DAPE Evaluation of International Migration," presentation for the U.S. Census Bureau's Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy.

Deardorff, Kevin and Arthur Cresce. 2001. "Alternative Assumptions for Components of International Migration," presentation for the U.S. Census Bureau's Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy.

Deardorff, Kevin and Nolan Malone. 2001. "Consistency of 2000 Nativity Data," presentation for the U.S. Census Bureau's Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy.

Hogan, Howard and David Whitford. 2001. "Findings from the Census 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation," unpublished paper.

Malone, Nolan J. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Consistency of 2000 Nativity Data. (Population Division Working Paper #66) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Mulder, Tammany J., Betsy Guzman, and Angela Brittingham. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Foreign-Born Emigrants. (Population Division Working Paper #62) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Passel, J.S. 2001. "Some Random Thoughts on Undocumented Immigration in Census 2000, Demographic Analysis, A.C.E., and the CPS," and "Comparison of Demographic Analysis, A.C.E., and Census 2000 Results by Race." Unpublished memoranda.

Perry, Marc, Barbara van der Vate, Lea Auman, and Kathy Morris. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Legal Migrants. (Population Division Working Paper #59) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Robinson, J. Gregory. 2001. "Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation: Demographic Analysis Results," DSSD Census 2000 Procedures and Operations Memorandum Series B-4.

Component ID: #ti1451074783

APPENDIX 1: EQUATIONS FOR DAPE

Equations for Estimating the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status

Equation A: DAPE Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status1

Census Level Foreign-Born = [L - (M + E)] + T + R1 + R2

"True" Level Foreign-Born = ARL + ART + ARR1 + Implied Unauthorized

Counted L = 0.98 ARL
Counted T = 0.65 ART
Counted R1 = 0.95 ARR1

Census Level Foreign-Born - (0.98 ARL) - (0.65 ART) - (0.95 ARR1) =

Counted Unauthorized = R2

To get implied unauthorized:

Apply Undercount to Counted Unauthorized (R2) = 1/.875 R2

where:

[L - (M + E)] = Survived legal immigrants (counted)
T = Temporary migrants (counted)
R1 = Residual foreign-born known components (counted)
R2 = Residual foreign-born implied unauthorized (counted)
ARL = Administrative record estimate of implied survived legal immigrants (INS data)
ART = Administrative record estimate of temporary migrants (INS data)
ARR = Administrative record estimate of residual foreign-born known components (INS data)

1The census level estimates used to produce results in Table 3 assumed a survived legal immigrant population of 21,188,258 rather than 21,179,783. The "true" level estimates in Table 3 assumed known components of the residual foreign-born were 1,789,474 rather than 1,700,000.


Equation B: DAPE Lower-Bound Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status2

Census Level Foreign-Born = [L - (M + E)] + T + R1 + R2

"True" Level Foreign-Born = ARL + ART + ARR1 + Implied Unauthorized

Counted L = 0.99 ARL
Counted T = 0.93 ART
Counted R1 = 0.99 ARR1

Census Level Foreign-Born - (0.99 ARL) - (0.93 ART) - (0.99 ARR1) =

Counted Unauthorized = R2

To get implied unauthorized:

Apply Undercount to Counted Unauthorized (R2) = 1/.90 R2

where the notation is as defined above.

2The census level estimates used to produce results in Table 4 assumed a survived legal immigrant population of 21,398,043 rather than 21,395,903; a temporary migrant population of 1,121,495 rather than 1,116,000; and known components of the residual foreign-born of 1,683,168 rather than 1,683,000.


Equation C: DAPE Upper-Bound Estimate of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status3

Census Level Foreign-Born = [L - (M + E)] + T + R1 + R2

"True" Level Foreign-Born = ARL + ART + ARR1 + Implied Unauthorized

Counted L = 0.98 ARL
Counted T = 0.65 ART
Counted R1 = 0.95 ARR1

Census Level Foreign-Born - (0.98 ARL) - (0.65 ART) - (0.95 ARR1) =

Counted Unauthorized = R2

To get implied unauthorized:

Apply Undercount to Counted Unauthorized (R2) = 1/.85 R2

where the notation is as defined above.

3The census level estimates used to produce results in Table 5 assumed a survived legal immigrant population of 21,188,258 rather than 21,179,783 and known components of the residual foreign-born of 1,619,048 rather than 1,615,000.

Component ID: #ti1451074784

APPENDIX 2: DAPE WORKING PAPER SERIES BIBLIOGRAPHY
(in order of Working Paper Series Number)

Deardorff, K. and L. Blumerman. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status: 2000. (Population Division Working Paper #58) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Perry, M., B. Van der Vate, L. Auman, and K. Morris. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Legal Migrants. (Population Division Working Paper #59) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Cassidy, R. and L. Pearson. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Temporary (Legal) Migrants. (Population Division Working Paper #60) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Costanzo, J., C. Davis, C. Irazi, D. Goodkind, R. Ramirez. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: The Residual Foreign-Born. (Population Division Working Paper #61) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Mulder, T., B. Guzmán, and A. Brittingham. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Foreign-Born Emigrants. (Population Division Working Paper #62) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Gibbs, J., G. Harper, M. Rubin, H. Shin. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Native Emigrants. (Population Division Working Paper #63) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Christenson, M. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Migration Between Puerto Rico and the United States. (Population Division Working Paper #64) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Cresce, A., R. Ramirez, and G. Spencer. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Quality of Foreign-Born and Hispanic Population Data. (Population Division Working Paper #65) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

Malone, N. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Consistency of 2000 Nativity Data. (Population Division Working Paper #66) (December 2001) U.S. Census Bureau.

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