Robust Learning and Posterior Summary — Contributed Papers

Thursday, August 1, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

Chair: Stephanie M Coffey, U.S. Census Bureau

SPEED: Biometrics and Biostatistics Part 1 — Contributed Speed

Monday, July 29, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

Monday, July 29, 2019, 11:35 a.m. – 12:20 p.m. (Part 2 - Poster Presentations)

9:15 a.m. Statistical Assessment of Bovine Body Weight via Functional Gait Data

Andrew Raim, U.S. Census Bureau
Nagaraj Neerchal, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Dan Tasch, Step Analysis LLC
Uri Tasch, Step Analysis LLC

Multivariate Time Series: Modeling and Estimation — Topic Contributed Papers

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

Organizer: James Livsey, U.S. Census Bureau

10:35 a.m. Applying the EM Algorithm to Multivariate Signal Extraction

James Livsey, U.S. Census Bureau

11:15 a.m. Gaussian Copula Vector Autoregressive Modeling

Vladas Pipiras, University of North Carolina At Chapel Hill
James Livsey, U.S. Census Bureau
Benjamin Leinwand, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

11:35 a.m. Constrained Estimation in Co-Integrated VAR Models

Anindya Roy, University of Maryland - Baltimore County
Tucker McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau

11:55 a.m. A Class of Multivariate Filters for Trend Extraction and Statistical Analysis of Multiple Related Time Series

Thomas Trimbur, U.S. Census Bureau
Tucker McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau

New Methodologies and Modern Data Applications — Contributed Papers

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

2:35 p.m. Multidimensional Skills and the Returns to Schooling: Evidence from an Interactive Fixed Effects Approach and a Linked Survey-Administrative Dataset

Evan Totty, U.S. Census Bureau
Mohitosh Kejriwal, Purdue University
Xiaoxiao Li , Villanova University

Advances in Time Series Methodology — Topic Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

Organizer: James Livsey, U.S. Census Bureau

Chair: Rebecca Hutchinson, U.S. Census Bureau

8:35 a.m. Quadratic Prediction of Time Series via Auto-Cumulants

Tucker McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau
Soumendra N Lahiri, North Carolina State University
Dhrubajyoti Ghosh, North Carolina State University

8:55 a.m. Seasonal Adjustment Subject to Frequency Aggregation Constraints

Osbert Pang, U.S. Census Bureau
Tucker McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau
Brian Monsell, U.S. Census Bureau

9:15 a.m. Seasonal Adjustment of Aggregate Time Series with Components Containing Meagre Values

Richard Penny, Statistics New Zealand
Tucker McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau

SPEED: Methodological Advances in Time Series: BandE Speed Session, Part 1 — Contributed Speed

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 11:15 a.m. (Part 2 - Poster Presentations)

9:10 a.m. To Adjust or Not to Adjust? An Empirical Evaluation of Time Series with Unstable Seasonal Patterns

Demetra Lytras, U.S. Census Bureau

Forecasting and Modeling Financial Volatility — Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

Chair: Tucker McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau

Challenges and Breakthroughs in Analyzing Big Survey Data — Invited Papers

Sunday, July 28, 2019, 2:00 p.m. - 3:50 p.m.

3:20 p.m. Regression Composite Estimation for Current Population Survey

Yang Cheng, U.S. Census Bureau
Daniel Bonnery, University of Maryland and Maryland Longitudinal Data System Center
Partha Lahiri, University of Maryland, College Park

Developing Multi-Purpose Imputed or Synthetic Data for Official Statistics — Invited Papers

Monday, July 29, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

Organizer: Katherine J Thompson, U.S. Census Bureau

Chair: Demetra Lytras, U.S. Census Bureau

10:35 a.m. Finding a Flexible Hot Deck Imputation Method for Multinomial Data

Rebecca Andridge, The Ohio State University College of Public Health
Laura Bechtel, U.S. Census Bureau
Katherine J Thompson, U.S. Census Bureau

11:35 a.m. Developing Synthetic Data from the Economic Census Under Edit and Calibration Restrictions

Katherine J Thompson, U.S. Census Bureau
Hang Joon Kim, University of Cincinnati

Issues in Frame Quality and Accuracy Assessments — Contributed Papers

Monday, July 29, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

2:35 p.m. An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Census Net Undercount Rates from 1940 to 2010 Using Demographic Analysis

Eric Jensen, U.S. Census Bureau
Lauren Medina, U.S. Census Bureau

2:50 p.m. Incorporating Variance and Geographic Specificity into the Imputation Frame Used in Weighting the American Community Survey Group Quarters Sample

Dirk Bullock, U.S. Census Bureau
John M. Jordan, U.S. Census Bureau
Edward C. Castro, Jr., U.S. Census Bureau

3:05 p.m. Using Statistical Models in Place of Clerical Matching in the Census 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey to Produce Estimates of Census Housing Unit Coverage

Michael Beaghen
Elizabeth Marra, U.S. Census Bureau
Mark Jost, U.S. Census Bureau

3:20 p.m. Address Canvassing for the 2018 End-To-End Census Test

Shannon McDougall, U.S. Census Bureau

3:35 p.m. Imputation Models Using Automated Probability Matching Results

Glenn Reisch, U.S. Census Bureau

Government Statistics Section A.M. Roundtable Discussion (Added Fee) — Roundtables AM Roundtable Discussion

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 7:00 a.m. – 8:15 a.m.

TL03: Synthetic Data as an Alternative to PUMS: Challenges, Successes, and Issues

Katherine J Thompson, U.S. Census Bureau

Innovations in and Applications of Imputation — Contributed Papers

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

8:50 a.m. Imputing Seasonal  Data in an Advanced Indicator with Forecasts from X-13ARIMA-SEATS

Nicole Czaplicki, U.S. Census Bureau
Yarissa Gonzalez, U.S. Census Bureau

9:05 a.m. Multiple Imputation Within the American Housing Survey

Sean Dalby, US Census Bureau

Expanding Data Utility - Issues in Disclosure and Modeling — Contributed Papers

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

11:20 a.m. Overdispersed Binomial Small Area Models with Application to Poverty Rate Estimation

Patrick Joyce, U.S. Census Bureau

Official Statistics at the Crossroads: Data Quality and Access in an Era of Heightened Privacy Risk — Invited Panel

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

Organizer: Michael Hawes, U.S. Census Bureau

Chair: Michael Hawes, U.S. Census Bureau

2:05 p.m. Official Statistics at the Crossroads: Data Quality and Access in an Era of Heightened Privacy Risk

Panelists:
John M. Abowd, U.S. Census Bureau
Katy Rother, Committee on Oversight, U.S. House of Representatives
Michael Davern, NORC
Rochelle (Shelly) Wilkie Martinez, U.S. Office of Management and Budget

Differential Privacy Research and Applications at the U.S. Census Bureau — Topic Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

Organizer: Robert Ashmead, U.S. Census Bureau

8:35 a.m. Census Barriers Attitudes and Motivators Study: a Case Study in Differential Privacy at the U.S. Census Bureau

Caleb Floyd, U.S. Census Bureau
Rolondo Rodríguez, U.S. Census Bureau

8:55 a.m. Rationing Out Privacy-Loss: Proportional Budget Expenditure in the 2020 Decennial Census Disclosure Avoidance System

William Sexton, U.S. Census Bureau

9:15 a.m. Ensuring Output: Complex Constraints and Feasible Microdata Under Differential Privacy

Philip Leclerc, US Census Bureau

9:35 a.m. Estimating the Variance of Complex Differentially Private Algorithms

Robert Ashmead, U.S. Census Bureau

Using and Linking Administrative and Auxiliary Data — Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

8:35 a.m. The Research and Methodology on Staggering the 2020 Census Mailings

Ioana (Julia) Marasteanu, U.S Census Bureau
Sarah Konya, U.S. Census Bureau

8:50 a.m. Analyzing Tradeoff Between Administrative Records Enumeration and Count Imputation

Andrew Keller, U.S. Census Bureau

9:05 a.m. Estimating the Probability of Race Change

Larry Sink, US Census Bureau

9:35 a.m. The Promises and Challenges of Linked Rent Data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey and Housing and Urban Development

Garret Christensen, U.S. Census Bureau
Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, U.S. Census Bureau
Laura Erhard, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Thesia Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Brett Butler, Bureau of Labor Statistics
John Voorheis, U.S. Census Bureau

10:05 a.m. Assessment of Computer Availability and Internet Access Statistics to Improve the Planning Database's Low Response Score

Luke Larsen, U.S. Census Bureau
Kathleen Kephart, U.S. Census Bureau

Time Series in Government and National Statistics — Topic Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

Organizer: James Livsey, U.S. Census Bureau

Chair: James Livsey, U.S. Census Bureau

2:25 p.m. Using Daily Payment Processor Data to Determine Existence and Length of Retail Shopping Event Effects

Rebecca Hutchinson, U.S. Census Bureau
Nicole Czaplicki, U.S. Census Bureau

3:05 p.m. Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Aggregates

Baoline Chen, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Tucker McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau
Osbert Pang, U.S. Census Bureau

Learning from the Past – a History of Censuses — Invited Papers

Thursday, August 1, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

9:05 a.m. Evolution of the US Census: Politics, Society, Opportunity, and Innovation

Howard Hogan, U. S. Census Bureau

Evaluating and Reducing Nonsampling Errors in Surveys — Contributed Papers

Thursday, August 1, 2019, 10:30 a.m. 12:20 p.m.

10:35 a.m. Quarterly Financial Report Nonresponse Bias Analysis

Dhanapati Khatiwoda, U.S. Census Bureau

11:05 Impact of Certified Mail on Nonresponse Rates

Redouane Betrouni, U.S. Census Bureau
Peter Schilling, U.S. Census Bureau
Dedrick Owens, U.S. Census Bureau
Bac Tran, U.S. Census Bureau

Applications in the Analysis of Survey Data — Contributed Papers

Thursday, August 1, 2019, 10:30 am – 12:20 p.m.

Chair: Katherine J Thompson, U.S. Census Bureau

11:50 a.m. Robust Estimation of Employment and Finance Data Using Bayesian Inference for T-Mixture of Linear Mixed Models

Giang Trinh, U.S. Census Bureau
Noah Bassel, U.S. Census Bureau
Bac Tran, U.S. Census Bureau

Deming’s Statistical Legacy – Topic Contributed Panel

Sunday July, 28, 2019, 4:00 p.m. 5:50 p.m.

Chair: John L. Eltinge, U.S. Census Bureau

Formal Privacy: Making an Impact at Large Organizations — Topic Contributed Panel

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

10:35 a.m. Formal Privacy: Making an Impact at Large Organizations

Panelists:
Simson Garfinkel, U.S. Census Bureau
Ilya Mironov, Google
Juan Lavista Ferres, Microsoft
Shiva Kasiviswanathan, Amazon

Data for Social Good: Opportunities and New Directions — Topic Contributed Panel

Sunday, July 28, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

Chair: Redouane Betrouni, U.S. Census Bureau

3:40 p.m. Floor Discussion

Implementing the 2018 Standard Occupational Classification System in the Federal Statistical System — Topic Contributed Panel

Monday, July 29, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

Organizer: Lynda Laughlin, U.S. Census Bureau

Chair: Heide Jackson, U.S. Census Bureau

8:35 a.m. Implementing the 2018 Standard Occupational Classification System in the Federal Statistical System

Panelists:
Lynda Laughlin, U.S. Census Bureau
Laurie Salmon, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kerrie Leslie
Stella Fayer, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Social Statistics Section P.M. Roundtable Discussion (Added Fee) — Roundtables PM Roundtable Discussion

Monday, July 29, 2019, 12:30 p.m. – 1:50 p.m.

ML18: Creating a Home for Social Scientists Within ASA

Paul Beatty, U.S. Census Bureau
Stephanie Eckman, RTI International

Improvements to the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement and Implications for Estimates of Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage — Invited Papers

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.

Organizer: Laryssa Mykyta, U.S. Census Bureau

Chair: Jonathan L. Rothbaum, U.S. Census Bureau

8:35 a.m. Processing Changes to the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement

Jonathan L. Rothbaum, U.S. Census Bureau
Trudi Jane Renwick, U.S. Census Bureau

8:55 a.m. Changes to the Household Relationship Data in the Current Population Survey

Rose Kreider, U.S. Census Bureau
Benjamin Gurrentz, U.S. Census Bureau

9:15 a.m. Updating the Current Population Survey Processing System and Bridging Differences in the Measurement of Poverty

Ashley Edwards, U.S. Census Bureau
John Creamer, U.S. Census Bureau

9:35 a.m. Health Insurance in the United States: Evaluating the Effects of Changes

Edward Berchick, U.S. Census Bureau
Heide Jackson, U.S. Census Bureau

SPEED: Methodological Developments in Social Statistics, Part 1 — Contributed Speed

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m. (Part 2: Poster Presentations)

10:40 a.m. Measuring Impact of Tax Law Changes on CPS ASEC Tax Model

Bruce Webster, US Census Bureau
Kathryn Shantz, U.S. Census Bureau

Understanding Threats to People, Data, and Privacy — Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

Chair: Lynda Laughlin, U.S. Census Bureau

Methodological Developments and Implications for Social Scientists — Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

Chair: Anthony G. Tersine, U.S. Census Bureau

Contributed Poster Presentations: Section on Statistical Computing — Contributed Poster Presentations

Monday, July 29, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

46: Fitting Flexible Models for Count Data: COM-Poisson Regression, Bivariate, Multinomial and Mixed Models

Darcy Steeg Morris, U.S. Census Bureau
Kimberly F Sellers, Georgetown University

Machine Learning in Science and Industry — Contributed Papers

Monday, July 29, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

2:35 p.m. Using Machine Learning to Assign North American Industry Classification System Codes to Establishments Based on Business Description Write-Ins

Brian Dumbacher, U.S. Census Bureau
Anne Russell, U.S. Census Bureau

SPEED: Survey Methods, Transportation Studies, SocioEconomics, and General Statistical Methods Part 1 — Contributed Speed

Sunday, July 28, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

Sunday, July 28, 2019, 5:05 p.m. – 5:50 p.m. (Part 2 - Poster Presentations)

2:05 p.m. Frame Development and Sample Design for the 2018 National Survey of Children's Health

Emilee Sizemore, U.S. Census Bureau
Tracy Mattingly, U.S. Census Bureau
Antoinette Lubich, U.S. Census Bureau

2:15 p.m. A Comparison of Clustering Criteria for Evaluating Multivariate Stratifications of Primary Sampling Units

Padraic Murphy, U.S. Census Bureau

3:10 p.m Successive Difference Replication Applications

Timothy Trudell
Khoa Dong, U.S. Census Bureau
Eric Slud, U.S. Census Bureau
Robert Ashmead, U.S. Census Bureau

Survey Research Methods Section A.M. Roundtable Discussion (Added Fee) — Roundtables AM Roundtable Discussion

Monday, July 29, 2019, 7:00 a.m. – 8:15 a.m.

Organizer: Yang Cheng, U.S. Census Bureau

ML07: Using Behavioral Insights to Increase Response Rates

Victoria A Velkoff, U.S. Census Bureau

Modeling Applications for Backcasting, Nowcasting and Forecasting — Contributed Papers

Monday, July 29, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

8:35 a.m. Using American Community Survey Data to Improve Estimates from Smaller Surveys Through Bivariate Small Area Estimation Models

Carolina Franco, U.S. Census Bureau
William Bell, U.S. Census Bureau

9:05 a.m. Model-Assisted Estimation of Mixed-Effect Model Parameters in Complex Surveys

Eric Slud, U.S. Census Bureau

9:50 a.m. Variable Selection for Multinomial Logistic Regression Modeling to Assign One of Six Census Mindsets to Database Records

Mary H. Mulry, U.S. Census Bureau
Yazmín A. García Trejo, U.S. Census Bureau
Nancy Bates, U.S. Census Bureau

Big Survey Meets Big Data: Integrating Administrative Data into the American Community Survey — Topic Contributed Papers

Monday, July 29, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

Organizer: Victoria A Velkoff, U.S. Census Bureau

Chair: Victoria A Velkoff, U.S. Census Bureau

10:35 a.m. Broad Roles for Administrative and Third-Party Data in the ACS

Jennifer Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau

10:55 a.m. Preliminary Research Investigating the Use of Administrative Records in the American Community Survey (ACS)

Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, U.S. Census Bureau

11:15 a.m. Simulating ACS Housing Estimates Using Administrative Data

Robert Sawyer, U.S. Census Bureau

11:35 a.m. Measuring Income Using Administrative Data

Jonathan L. Rothbaum, U.S. Census Bureau

11:55 a.m. Incorporating Administrative Data in ACS Editing and Imputation Procedures

Sandra Clark, U.S. Census Bureau

SPEED: Big Data, Small Area Estimation, and Methodological Innovations Under Development, Part 1 — Contributed Speed

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 11:15 a.m. (Part 2: Poster presentations)

8:35 a.m. Using Paradata to Explore Users Pathways Through Web Surveys

Renee Ellis, U.S. Census Bureau

8:50 a.m. Assessing the Relationship Between Balanced Sample and Sample Representativity

Yonil Park, U.S. Census Bureau
Thomas John Chesnut, U.S. Census Bureau

9:05 a.m. Modifying State Sample Sizes for the National Crime Victimization Survey

Samantha Spiers, U.S. Census Bureau
Sandra Peterson, U.S. Census Bureau
David Hornick, U.S. Census Bureau

9:10 a.m. Small Area Estimates of the Child Population and Poverty in School Districts Using Dirichlet-Multinomial Models

Jerry Maples, U.S. Census Bureau

Adaptive Survey Design: Recent Advances and New Potential — Topic Contributed Papers

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

Organizer: Stephanie M Coffey, U.S. Census Bureau

11:15 a.m. Dynamic Interventions for Outcome Improvement: Minimizing Cost for a Fixed RMSE

Stephanie M Coffey, U.S. Census Bureau

11:55 a.m. Use of Adaptive and Responsive Design Concepts and Methods in the Integration of Multiple Data Sources

John L. Eltinge, U.S. Census Bureau

Nonresponse Errors and Fixes — Contributed Papers

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

2:35 p.m. A Comparison of Selective Versus Automatic Editing for Estimating Totals

Chin-Fang Weng, U.S. Census Bureau
Joanna Fane Lineback, U.S. Census Bureau

Contributed Poster Presentations: Survey Research Methods Section — Contributed Poster Presentations

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

83: Internet Self-Response Projections for the 2020 Census

Megan Parker, U.S. Census Bureau

Survey Sampling and Variance Estimation: Recent Innovations — Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

9:35 a.m. Overview of the 2016-2025 National Health Interview Survey Sample Design

Chris Moriarity, National Center for Health Statistics
Van Parsons, National Center for Health Statistics
Kim Jonas, U.S. Census Bureau

10:05 a.m. An Elementary Derivation of Kadane's Optimal Dynamic Sampling Plan

Tommy Wright, U.S. Census Bureau

Survey Research Methods Section P.M. Roundtable Discussion (Added Fee) — Roundtables PM Roundtable Discussion

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 12:30 p.m. – 1:50 p.m.

Organizer: Yang Cheng, U.S. Census Bureau

WL16: What Do We Know About the Value of High-Quality Statistical Information? How Can We Learn More?

John L. Eltinge, U.S. Census Bureau

Sampling, Variance Estimation, and Advancements with Auxiliary Data — Contributed Papers

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 2:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m.

2:05 p.m. Primary Sampling Unit Matching for Variance Estimation in Stratified Two-Stage Sampling

Khoa Dong, U.S. Census Bureau
Timothy Trudell
Yang Cheng, U.S. Census Bureau
Eric Slud, U.S. Census Bureau

2:20 p.m. Alternative Optimization Techniques for Sample Allocation in Surveys with National and Sub-National Precision Requirements

Thomas John Chesnut, U.S. Census Bureau
Shawn Baker, U.S. Census Bureau

2:50 p.m. Generalized Variance Functions for Longitudinal Survey Data

Yan Lu, University of New Mexico
Guoyi Zhang, University of New Mexico
Yang Cheng, U.S. Census Bureau

Statistical Modeling: Benefits and Drawbacks — Contributed Papers

Thursday, August 1, 2019, 8:30 a.m. – 10:20 a.m.

8:35 a.m. A Reconsideration of the Gibbs Sampler for Small Area Estimation Models

William Bell, U.S. Census Bureau

Small Area Estimation: “Producing Estimates for Small Areas from Sampled Data” — Invited Papers

Thursday, August 1, 2019, 10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m.

11:50 a.m. Interpolating Distributions for Populations in Nested Geographies Using Public-Use Data with Application to the American Community Survey

Scott H. Holan, University of Missouri/U.S. Census Bureau
Matthew Simpson, SAS
Christopher K. Wikle, University of Missouri
Jonathan R. Bradley, Florida State University

An Introduction to Differential Privacy (ADDED FEE) — Professional Development Continuing Education Course

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 8:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.

Instructor(s):

Robert Ashmead, Ohio Colleges of Medicine Government Resource Center
Philip Leclerc, U.S. Census Bureau
William Sexton, U.S. Census Bureau