U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Skip Header


Business Dynamics Statistics of High Growth Firms (BDS-HG)

Business Dynamics Statistics of High Growth Firms (BDS-HG)

The Business Dynamics Statistics of U.S. High Growth Firms (BDS-HG) is an experimental data product extending the set of statistics published by the Business Dynamics Statistics program. BDS-HG is a component of a broader set of approaches aimed at better measuring the business dynamics of innovative firms (BDS-IF), described in greater detail in Goldschlag & Perlman (2017). BDS-HG provides annual measures of business dynamics by the firm growth rate distribution. Additional details on the computation of firm growth rates can be found in the Methodology section below and Kim et al. (2024).

BDS-HG data tables show key economic data including the number of establishments, firms, and employment, job creation  and destruction, and establishment openings and closings along the firm growth rate distribution. The BDS-HG series provides annual statistics for 1978 to 2022 by firm growth rates and a series of firm and establishment characteristics including size, age, industry, and geography.

Below we summarize some of the findings of Kim et al. (2024), who provide a first-look at patterns in the BDS-HG tabulations.

The share of high-growth firms has been declining over time, shown in Figure 1. The share of firms that are high-growth fell from just under 20% in 1978 to less than 13% in 2020. This is in part due to the well documented decline in firm entry, but it also appears that fewer continuing firms are growing quickly. The percent of high-growth continuing firms fell from 4.8% in 1978 to 2% in 2020.

Figure 1. High-Growth Firm Share

Source: Kim et al. (2024), Figure 3.

The BDS-HG tables allow us to focus on high-growth continuing firms of different ages. As shown in Figure 2, the share of high-growth firms has declined across the firm age distribution. About 10% of firms aged 1 to 5 in the mid-1980s were growing quickly. That share fell to under 8% in 2020. Similarly, for mature firms at least 11 years old, about 5% were high growth in the early 1990s, which fell to 3.4% in 2020. We see an increase in high-growth activity in 2021, the first year that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic can be seen in the BDS data.

Figure 2. High-Growth Firms and Firm Age

Source: Kim et al. (2024), Figure 6.

The BDS-HG data are rich enough to allow us to look at both size and age together. Figure 3 shows the percent of average employment (denom). Holding size constant, a much larger share of employment among younger firms is associated high-growth firms. This is consistent with young firms being more dynamic and innovative. Holding age constant, however, there is less of a systematic relationship for young firms and a slight negative relationship between growth and size. For young firms, those ages 1 to 5, the smallest and largest size classes have the highest shares. For middle aged firms, those ages 6 to 10, and mature firms, those at least 11 years old, there is decline in the share of high-growth firms moving from small to large firms.

Figure 3. High-Growth Firms by Firm Size and Firm Age

Source: Kim et al. (2024), Figure 8.

Finally, the BDS-HG tables show systematic patterns in high-growth firm activity across states. Since some states are much larger they naturally account for more high-growth firms. Figure 4 abstracts from this by showing the gap between a state’s share of all firms and its share of high-growth firms. If each state accounted for the same share of high-growth firms as it does all firms, then the graph would be flat, with all states falling on the zero line. Instead, we see that some states, such as Florida, California, and Texas account for a higher share of high-growth firms than they do of all firms. In other words, these state’s account for more high-growth firm activity than we would expect just given their size. The size of each point in the graph is proportional to the state’s total employment, such that larger states have larger bubble sizes.

Figure 4. High-Growth Firms Across States

Source: Kim et al. (2024), Figure 10.

As shown by these figures, the BDS-HG tabulates provide a rich view of the firm growth rate distribution and allow policy makers and researchers to see the characteristics of high-growth firms in the U.S. economy.

References

Kim, J.D., Choi, J., Goldschlag, N., Haltiwanger, J. (2024). High-Growth Firms in the United States: Key Trends and New Data Opportunities. CES Discussion Paper Series, CES-WP-24-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

Goldschlag, Nathan & Perlman, Elisabeth. (2017). Business Dynamic Statistics of Innovative Firms. CES Discussion Paper Series, CES-WP-17-72, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

NEW: The 2022 BDS-High Growth covering the years 1978 to 2022 is now available! The 2022 release includes applicable changes and improvements reflected in the 2022 BDS Release.

Download experimental Business Dynamics Statistics of High Growth (BDS-High Growth) data tables below. Variable definitions can be found in the Definitions dropdown below.

Data Sources

The BDS-High Growth is an experimental product of the U.S. Census Bureau. The BDS-HG was developed by the Center for Economic Studies (CES). The BDS-HG data are compiled from the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD). The LBD is a longitudinal database of business establishments and firms with coverage starting in 1976. Two methods are used to classify firm growth. For details about how firm growth is computed and growth bins are generated see the Methodology dropdown.

The Census Bureau has reviewed this data product to ensure appropriate access, use, and disclosure avoidance protection of the confidential source data used to produce this product (Data Management System (DMS) number: P-7083300, Disclosure Review Board (DRB) approval number: CBDRB-FY24-0446).

Firm Growth Rate (fempgr_gr) Datasets

Economy-Wide Datasets

One-Way Datasets

Two-Way Datasets

Firm Growth Rate Percentile (fempgr_grpctpct) Datasets

Economy-Wide Datasets

One-Way Datasets

Two-Way Datasets

Prior Versions of BDS-High Growth

The year t release replaces the year t-1 release e.g. the 2022 release (1978-2022) replaces the 2021 release (1978-2021). Please contact us if interested in prior releases.

Top of Section

fempgr_gr – Firm employment growth rate bin. For a description of how firm growth rates are calculated, please see the Methodology dropdown.

fempgr_gr Description
a) -2 Firm growth rate equal to -2, positive employment in t-1 but zero employment in t.
b) (-2 to -0.8] Firm growth rate greater than -2 but less than or equal to -0.8.
c) (-0.8 to -0.2] Firm growth rate greater than -0.8 but less than or equal to -0.2.
d) (-0.2 to -0.01] Firm growth rate greater than -0.2 but less than or equal to -0.01.
e) (-0.01 to 0.01) Firm growth rate greater than -0.01 and less 0.01, very near zero.
f) [0.01 to 0.2) Firm growth rate greater than or equal to 0.01 but less than 0.2.
g) [0.2 to 0.8) Firm growth rate greater than or equal to 0.2 but less than 0.8.
h) [0.8 to 2) Firm growth rate greater than or equal to 0.8 but less than 2.
i) 2 Firm growth rate equal to 2, zero employment in t-1 but positive employment in t.

fempgr_grpct – Firm employment growth rate percentile bin. For a description of how firm growth rates are calculated, please see the Methodology dropdown.

fempgr_grpct Description
a) [0 to 10] Firm growth rate is equal to or less than the 10th percentile of the employment weighted within-year growth rate distribution.
b) (10 to 25] Firm growth rate is greater than the 10th percentile and less than or equal to the 25th percentile of the firm growth rate distribution.
c) (25 to 75] Firm growth rate is greater than the 25th percentile and less than or equal to the 75th percentile of the firm growth rate distribution.
d) (75 to 90] Firm growth rate is greater than the 75th percentile and less than or equal to the 90th percentile of the firm growth rate distribution.
e) (90 to 100] Firm growth rate is greater than the 90th percentile of the firm growth rate distribution.

Top of Section

The BDS-HG experimental data product classifies firms by their growth rate between t-1 and t as described in Kim et al. (2024). Here we briefly summarize the methodology describe by Kim et al. (2024). Firm-level growth rates are computed as the aggregation of establishment-level changes in employment divided by the sum of average establishment between t-1 and t. Specifically, establishment growth git is defined as follows:

Annual net revenue creation rate for all firms active in quarter 4

For establishment i at time t with employment E. The denominator, Xit is defined as follows:

Annual net revenue creation rate for all firms active in quarter 4

Firm-level growth, gft, is then the sum of employment changes weighted by the sum of average establishment employment, for all establishments i associated with firm f at time t. This is computed as follows:

Annual net revenue creation rate for all firms active in quarter 4

This growth rate measure, first developed by Tornqvist et al. (1985), has become standard in the firm dynamics literature (Davis et al., 1996). gft is bounded from -2 to 2 with firms that transition from positive to zero employment having a firm growth rate of -2 and firms that transition from zero employment to positive employment having a growth rate of 2.

This growth measure has a number of desirable properties. First, it approximates log differences when growth rates are near zero. Second, it can be easily aggregated across cells given information about positive and negative changes and the sum of average employment. Third, it is defined for both entrants and exits. Fourth, it is symmetric for employment increases and decreases. For example, an establishment that changes from 10 to 15 employees will have a git growth rate of 0.4 (50% increase) and an establishment that changes from 15 to 10 employees will have a growth rate git of -0.4 (-33% decrease).

There are two firm-level growth rate classifications used in the BDS-HG tabulations. The first classifies firms by their firm growth rate gft in a given year (fempgr_gr). This classification uses the following nine bins: a) -2; b) (-2 to -0.8]; c) (-0.8 to -0.2]; d) (-0.2 to -0.01]; e) (-0.01 to 0.01); f) [0.01 to 0.2); g) [0.2 to 0.8); h) [0.8 to 2); i) 2. Note that the bins area not of equal size. Firms that enter (2) or exit (-2) are classified separately. Moreover, firms with growth rates near but not exactly zero are grouped together ((-0.01 to 0.01)).

The second firm growth classification identifies where a given firm sits on the within-year average employment weighted firm growth rate distribution (fempgr_grpct). To compute weighted percentiles, we order firms within a given year by their firm growth rates gft, breaking ties randomly, and compute the cumulative share of total average employment. The cumulative share of total average employment is then used to assign firms to one of five percentile-based bins as follows: a) [0 to 10], b) (10 to 25], c) (25 to 75], d) (75 to 90], e) (90 to 100]. Again, bins are not equally sized. This method, by construction, involves cut-offs that vary over time. As the firm growth rate distribution changes over time so too will the percentile-based cutoffs. This is illustrated in Figure 5 of Kim et al, shown below. The growth rate associated with the employment-weighted 90th percentile fell from 0.35 in the late 1970s to 0.23 in the 2010s.

Figure 5: Firm growth rates by percentile over time

Source: Kim et al. (2024), Figure 5.

For more information about the BDS-HG methodology and firm growth rates in the LBD see Kim et al. (2024).

References

Kim, J.D., Choi, J., Goldschlag, N., Haltiwanger, J. (2024). High-Growth Firms in the United States: Key Trends and New Data Opportunities. CES Discussion Paper Series, CES-WP-24-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

Davis, Steven J, John Haltiwanger, and Scott Schuh (1996) Job Creation and Destruction: MIT press.

Törnqvist, Leo, Pentti Vartia, and Yrjö O Vartia (1985) “How should relative changes be measured?” The American Statistician, 39 (1), 43–46.

Top of Section

Kim, J.D., Choi, J., Goldschlag, N., Haltiwanger, J. (2024). High-Growth Firms in the United States: Key Trends and New Data Opportunities. CES Discussion Paper Series, CES-WP-24-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

Top of Section

Questions? Contact us at ces.bds@census.gov.

Page Last Revised - March 17, 2025
Is this page helpful?
Thumbs Up Image Yes Thumbs Down Image No
NO THANKS
255 characters maximum 255 characters maximum reached
Thank you for your feedback.
Comments or suggestions?

Top

Back to Header