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As a long-time survey researcher, I have studied the influences on survey participation and tried to understand why some people respond and others do not. Despite all this research, response rates in surveys have declined each year throughout the western world. I fully expected the census to achieve lower participation rates this decade than it did in 2000.
It will take awhile to diagnose all the ingredients of the success, but our findings show that the local partners who got out the message to their neighbors, the paid media, and the PR campaign greatly increased awareness of the census from December 2009 to April 1, 2010. The data are also pretty clear that the replacement form was effective. The census tracts that received the replacement form clearly exceeded their performance in 2000. Although we don’t have data yet to prove this, I also suspect the short-form-only design was a winner.
The U.S. is a large, very diverse country. We know people who are angry and scared about their economic state and questioning whether government is helping make things better. Many report very low levels of trust in basic institutions. Despite all these negative signs in our society today, we have seemed to come together and responded at unanticipated levels.
This only marks the half way point for the 2010 Census. There is much hard work ahead to follow up on the approximately 48 million households that did not mail back a form, and risks remain. We need to continue to have the public’s cooperation to reach our final goal of a complete and accurate count of every person in the country.
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