We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of mortality events and weather forecasts for a twelve-year period in the U.S. Results show that erroneously mild forecasts increase mortality whereas erroneously extreme forecasts do not reduce mortality. Making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year. The public would be willing to pay $112 billion to make forecasts 50% more accurate over the remainder of the century, of which $22 billion reflects how forecasts facilitate adaptation to climate change.

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Shift or replenishment? Reassessing the prospect of stable Spanish bilingualism across contexts of ethnic change

June 2023

Author RUY MANRIQUE AND TED MOUW

Working Paper Number CES-23-28

This paper uses multilevel models to test for geographic contextual effects on the prevalence of Spanish bilingualism among native born Latinos in the SIPP.

Working Paper

The Spillover Effects of Top Income Inequality

June 2023

Author JOSHUA D. GOTTLIEB, DAVID HÉMOUS, JEFFREY HICKS, AND MORTEN OLSEN

Working Paper Number CES-23-29

We demonstrate how increases in income inequality originating within a few occupations can “spill over” through consumption into others.

Working Paper

The Gender Pay Gap and Its Determinants Across the Human Capital Distribution

June 2023

Author ARIEL J. BINDER, AMANDA ENG, KENDALL HOUGHTON, AND ANDREW FOOTE

Working Paper Number CES-23-31

This study links American Community Survey data and postsecondary transcript records to examine how the gender pay varies across education levels.

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Page Last Revised - July 5, 2023

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