Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock (
) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.
Topics
Data & Maps
Surveys & Programs
Resource Library
Modeling the 2021 Child Tax Credit in the CPS ASEC
Modeling the 2021 Child Tax Credit in the CPS ASEC
Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2022-17
NOTE: This paper is a revised version of an earlier paper with the same title and SEHSD working paper number. That paper benchmarked closely related modeled advance CTC payments against published IRS tables, since aggregates of total CTC payments after reconciliation were not available in time for publication of the working paper in conjunction with the mid-September release of Income in the United States: 2021.
The American Rescue Plan in 2021 greatly expanded the federal Child Tax Credit along several dimensions. This credit had been included in the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) production tax model in previous years, but its expansion and enhanced refundability made it likely to have an expanded impact on poverty, especially among children, as measured by the 2021 Supplemental Poverty Measure. Anticipating this enhanced importance, a new item was added to the 2022 CPS ASEC questionnaire regarding advance receipt of the Child Tax Credit. This paper describes changes to the CPS ASEC Tax Model to reflect the Child Tax Credit expansion, including how the model imputes receipt and credit amount. We then evaluate the tax model output using information from individually linked IRS Form 1040 records, focusing on the formation of tax units and identification of dependents. Finally, we benchmark total imputed Child Tax Credit payments against published IRS tables.
Related Information
WORKING PAPER
Poverty Working Papers
Page Last Revised - June 6, 2023
✕
Is this page helpful?
Yes
No
Yes
No✕
NO THANKS
255 characters maximum
255 characters maximum reached
255 characters maximum reached
✕
Thank you for your feedback.
Comments or suggestions?
Comments or suggestions?
