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Recent research finds that childhood neighborhoods affect adult economic outcomes, especially for children of low-income parents. Because places are shaped by both contemporary and historical factors, it is important to understand regional differences in opportunity both today and in the past. Using 1940 Census data linked to 1040 tax returns, we examine geographic differences in child outcomes experienced by cohorts born roughly 50 years apart – revealing how intergenerational persistence of status has changed over time both at the national level and at smaller geographic levels. We show that for White children of low-income parents, there has been moderate persistence in which places are associated with better and worse outcomes. For Black children, there has been very little persistence. We also show that the associations between many place characteristics (such as poverty and social capital) and better or worse outcomes are not robust to the inclusion of prior outcomes. This suggests that these associations are driven by omitted characteristics of those places.
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