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The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records

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The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records

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Working Paper Number CES-19-14

Abstract

The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records
Download The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records [PDF - <1.0 MB]

We reassess the antipoverty effects of the EITC using unique data linking the CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement to IRS data for the same individuals spanning years 2005-2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that significantly more actual EITC payments flow to childless tax units than predicted, and to those whose family income places them above official poverty thresholds. However, actual EITC payments appear to be target efficient at the tax unit level. In 2016, about 3.1 million persons were lifted out of poverty by the EITC, substantially less than prior estimates.

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Page Last Revised - October 8, 2021
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