Prepared for the American Statistical Association’s (ASA) Joint Statistical Meetings held in New York, New York, August 2002. This paper reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by Census Bureau staff. It has undergone a Census Bureau review more limited in scope than that given to official Census Bureau publications. This report is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. This work was funded in part by the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (OASPE). It does not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Government, the Census Bureau, or DHHS/OASPE.

Longitudinal surveys like the Survey of Income Program and Participation (SIPP) and the Survey of Program Dynamics (SPD) suffer from attrition that grows as the survey process is extended out in time. Until recently there has been little research examining directly the effect of attrition on longitudinal change measures. This paper attempts to use Social Security longitudinal earnings records for that purpose.