In the 1998 congressional election, only 45.3 percent of the voting-age citizen population reported voting. This percentage was the lowest turnout recorded since 1942.^/1 While voting rates decreased amongst the overall population, the percentage of Blacks^/2 who voted in the 1998 election increased. Between 1994 and 1998, the Black citizen vote rose from 38.8 percent to 41.9 percent, a 3.1 percentage point increase. This is the first congressional election that the Black turnout increased while the White turnout decreased. Why did this occur? Was this a one-time phenomenon or an emerging trend to be expected again in the 2000 election?

Certain demographic and socioeconomic characteristics are relatively strong indicators of voting behavior. Indeed, Whites and Blacks have similar patterns of voting participation by age, educational attainment, family income, and tenure. Thatis, regardless of race, older people vote more than younger people; more educated people vote more than less educated people; peoplefrom higher income families vote more than people from lower family incomes; and people who own their own homes vote more than people who rent. As a whole, the White and Black populations have distinctly different distributions among these characteristics, although there is some evidence these gaps may be narrowing. Other research suggests that the net of demographic and socioeconomic variables, such as education, Blacks are at least as likely, if not more likely, to vote as Whites.^/3

Using data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the November 1994 and 1998 Current Population Survey (CPS), this paper will examine the increase in the Black vote in a period when overall voter participation is at an all time low. We will examine whether these differences result from demographic composition or some other factor. First, we will estimate logisticregressions to examine by race group which demographic variables or type of election are related to whether a person will 1) register to vote and 2) vote. Second, we will investigate which, if any other of these characteristics, may have changed during the fouryear period from the last Congressional election.

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^/1 Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, February 8, 1999 and Day, Jennifer and Avalaura Gaither. 2000. “Voting and Registration in the Election of November 1998.” Current Population Reports, US Census Bureau.

^/2 Data in this paper for the Black and White populations do not include Hispanics.

^/3 Bass, Loretta and Lynne Casper. 1998. “Are There Differences in Registration and Voting Behavior Between Naturalized and Native-born Americans?” Population Division Working Paper No 28, US Census Bureau and Wolfinger, Raymond. 1994. “Improving Voter Participation in What to Do: Recommendations for Improving the Electoral Process.” By Paul E. Frank and William G. Mayer. Boston: Northeastern University Press.