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Nazrul Hoque, Steve Murdock
Component ID: #ti919921142


Population estimates and projections are difficult to complete with accuracy for small areas (Murdock et al., 1991; National Academy of Science, 1980; Ascher, 1978).  As a result, it is essential that any ongoing program of population estimation and projection periodically evaluate the results of past estimation and projection efforts against actual counts of the population (Murdock and Ellis, 1991).  Only by assessing the accuracy of past efforts it is possible to know the nature of errors made and to take steps to improve future estimates and projections.  This paper presents the results of the evaluation of the Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program’s population estimates for 1990 compared to the 1990 Census Counts for counties and places in Texas.  We evaluated Component Method II, the Ratio-correlation Method, and the Housing Unit Method.  Component Method II depends on the use of three characteristics of population that directly determine population change: births, deaths and net migration.


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