Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock (
) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.
Topics
Data & Maps
Surveys & Programs
Resource Library
Calculation of the Variance of Population Forecasts
Calculation of the Variance of Population Forecasts
RR88-20
Abstract
In this paper we propose a recursive method for forecasting populations and calculating the uncertainty in the estimate. In a recent survey paper, Land (1986) discusses three widely used classes of methods for national population forecasts. They are demographic accounting equations, statistical time series, and structural modeling methods. This paper combines the first two of these techniques. An advantage of the time series approach is that forecast variances can be derived.
Others in Series
Working Paper
Excluding Sample that Misses Some Interviews from SIPP Longitudinal...
Excluding Sample that Misses Some Interviews from SIPP Longitudinal Estimates
Working Paper
Applying Time Series Models in Forecasting Age-Specific Fertility R...
Applying Time Series Models in Forecasting Age-Specific Fertility Rates
Working Paper
Comparing Not Necessarily Nested Models with the Minimum AIC and th...
Comparing Not Necessarily Nested Models with the Minimum AIC and the Maximum Kullback-Leibler Entropy Criteria: New Properties and Connections
Related Information
WORKING PAPER
Statistical Research Reports and Studies
Page Last Revised - October 28, 2021
✕
Is this page helpful?
Yes
No
Yes
No✕
NO THANKS
255 characters maximum
255 characters maximum reached
255 characters maximum reached
✕
Thank you for your feedback.
Comments or suggestions?
Comments or suggestions?
