The procedure of using the most recent month's datum to produce the seasonal factor from which the seasonally adjusted estimate for that month is derived is commonly referred to as concurrent adjustment. The alternative of concurrently adjusting with Census X-11 is shown to be an improvement over the present practice of using twelve projected seasonal factors for seasonal adjustment. The improvement is on the order of 12% reduction in the root mean square error and a 20% reduction in the average absolute difference of month-to-month percentage changes. The use of the X-11 final adjustment as the definition of the target seasonal adjustment in the evaluation statistics is investigated and found to be a reasonable choice. The investigation of other-than-default X-11 options is found to be warranted in conjunction with the use of concurrent adjustment for some series.

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Working Paper

1979-80-Census Seasonal Adjustment Project: Final Report on Researc...

1980

1979-80-Census Seasonal Adjustment Project: Final Report on Research Activities

Working Paper

Signal Extraction for Nonstationary Time Series

July 27, 1982

Signal Extraction for Nonstationary Time Series

Working Paper

The Prediction of Time Series with Trends and Seasonalities

November 23, 1982

The Prediction of Time Series with Trends and Seasonalities

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