Robert R. Callis For Release 10:00 AM EDT, January 26, 1995 Alan Friedman CB95-09 (301) 763-8165 CENSUS BUREAU REPORTS ON RESIDENTIAL VACANCIES AND HOMEOWNERSHIP (Advance release of data to be presented in Series H-111, No. 94-Q4) Major changes related to the Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) were effective beginning with the first quarter 1994 data. First, a new weighting procedure was implemented based on the 1990 decennial census. The 1990-based weighting produces, on average, estimates of the total housing inventory that are about 0.1 percent lower than the 1980-based weighting. Revised vacancy rates and homeownership rates are provided in tables 1, 2, and 4 for 1993 to show the effect of this change. Generally, the vacancy rates are only minimally affected, while the homeownership rate is about one-half of a percentage point lower with the new weighting procedures. Table 1. RENTAL AND HOMEOWNER VACANCY RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES: 1980 to 1994 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rental vacancy rates Homeowner vacancy rates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- First Second Third Fourth First Second Third Fourth Year quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1994... 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1993r.. 7.8 7.6 7.0 6.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1993... 7.9 7.6 7.1 6.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1992... 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1991... 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1990... 7.5 7.0 7.2 7.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1989r.. 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1989... 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1988... 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1987... 7.4 7.5 8.1 7.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1986... 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1985... 6.3 6.2 6.8 6.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1984... 5.6 5.5 6.0 6.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1983... 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1982... 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1981... 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1980... 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 rRevised. A second change is that the CPS/HVS has become a totally computerized survey with the implementation of the Computer Assisted Survey Information Collection (CASIC). The CASIC tools consist of state-of-the-art computer- assisted modules for data collection and processing. Although the concepts, definitions, and questionnaire items remain the same, the shift to CASIC may affect vacancy rates and homeownership rates. We are unable to determine the quantitative effects of the use of CASIC on the vacancy and homeownership rates. Data users should use caution when comparing 1994 data with earlier data. National vacancy rates in the fourth quarter 1994 were 7.4 percent (+/-0.3) in rental housing and 1.6 percent (+/-0.1) in homeowner housing, the Department of Commerce's Census Bureau announced today. The Bureau said that the rental vacancy rate was higher than the revised fourth quarter 1993 rate, but not significantly different from the rate last quarter. The homeowner vacancy rate was higher than the revised fourth quarter 1993 rate and higher than the rate last quarter. The metropolitan/nonmetropolitan data shown in table 2 reflect 1980 census definitions. The CPS/HVS began a major geographic redesign in April 1994. The survey is gradually replacing sample cases selected from the 1980 census over a 15-month phase-in period with new sample cases drawn from the 1990 census. For this transitional period, we have converted 1990 sample cases to reflect 1980 metropolitan/nonmetropolitan definitions. In the first quarter 1995, we plan to convert to 1990 metropolitan/nonmetropolitan definitions. Table 2. RENTAL AND HOMEOWNER VACANCY RATES BY REGION: FOURTH QUARTER 1994 AND 1993 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rental vacancy rates Homeowner vacancy rates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area 4th 4th Std err Standard 4th 4th Std err Standard Qtr Qtr on 1994 error on Qtr Qtr on 1994 error on 1994 1993r rate differ- 1994 1993r rate differ- ence ence -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- United States...... 7.4 6.9 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.1 Inside MAs........ 7.2 7.0 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.1 In central cities........... 7.7 7.5 0.3 0.4 2.1 1.9 0.1 0.2 Not in central cities (suburbs). 6.5 6.3 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.1 Outside MAs....... 8.2 6.5 0.4 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.1 0.2 Northeast......... 7.1 6.4 0.4 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.2 Midwest........... 6.8 6.2 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.1 South............. 8.3 7.4 0.3 0.4 1.9 1.5 0.1 0.1 West.............. 6.8 7.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.1 0.2 rRevised. For rental housing, the vacancy rate was lowest in the suburbs (6.5 percent). The rental vacancy rate outside Metropolitan Areas (MAs) was higher than the revised rate a year ago, while rates in central cities and in the suburbs were not significantly different from revised fourth quarter 1993 rates. For homeowner housing, the vacancy rate was also lowest in the suburbs (1.4 percent). The homeowner vacancy rates in the suburbs and outside MAs were higher than revised rates a year ago, while the rate in central cities was not significantly different from the revised fourth quarter 1993 rate. The rental vacancy rate was highest in the South (8.3 percent), while rates in the Northeast, Midwest, and West were not significantly different from each other. The rental vacancy rate in the South was higher than the revised rate a year ago, while rates in the other regions showed no statistically significant change from fourth quarter 1993 rates. For homeowner housing, the vacancy rate was highest in the South (1.9 percent) and lowest in the Midwest (1.2 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate in the South was higher than the revised fourth quarter 1993 rate, while rates in the other regions showed no significant change from revised fourth quarter 1993 rates. There were an estimated 111.8 million housing units in the United States in the fourth quarter 1994. Approximately 99.6 million were occupied, 63.9 million by owners and 35.6 million by renters. Of the 12.2 million vacant housing units, 9.4 million were for year-round use, while the remaining 2.8 million were intended for seasonal use. Approximately 2.9 million of the year-round vacant units were for rent, 1.1 million were for sale only, and the remaining 5.4 million were vacant for a variety of reasons. Table 3. ESTIMATES OF THE TOTAL HOUSING INVENTORY FOR THE UNITED STATES: FOURTH QUARTER 1994 (Numbers in thousands) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Standard Type Estimate error on Percent estimate distribution -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All housing units..... 111,806 231 100 Occupied......................... 99,593 237 89 Owner.......................... 63,947 229 57 Renter......................... 35,646 191 32 Vacant........................... 12,213 121 11 Year-round vacant.............. 9,368 107 8 For rent...................... 2,864 60 3 For sale only................. 1,076 37 1 Other......................... 5,428 82 5 Seasonal....................... 2,845 60 3 During the fourth quarter 1994, the homeownership rate was 64.2 percent (+/-0.3). The homeownership rate was not significantly different from the rate last quarter or the revised fourth quarter 1993 rate. Table 4. HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES: 1980 to 1994 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Homeownership Rates1 Year First Second Third Fourth quarter quarter quarter quarter -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1994................. 63.8 63.8 64.1 64.2 1993r................ 63.7 63.9 64.2 64.2 1993................. 64.2 64.4 64.7 64.6 1992................. 64.0 63.9 64.3 64.4 1991................. 63.9 63.9 64.2 64.2 1990................. 64.0 63.7 64.0 64.1 1989r................ 63.9 63.8 64.1 63.8 1989................. 63.9 63.9 64.0 63.8 1988................. 63.7 63.7 64.0 63.8 1987................. 63.8 63.8 64.2 64.1 1986................. 63.6 63.8 63.8 63.9 1985................. 64.1 64.1 63.9 63.5 1984................. 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.1 1983................. 64.7 64.7 64.8 64.4 1982................. 64.8 64.9 64.9 64.5 1981................. 65.6 65.3 65.6 65.2 1980................. 65.5 65.5 65.8 65.5 1Standard errors for quarterly homeownership rates for the United States generally are 0.2 percent. rRevised. The data in this release are the result of a sample survey and are, therefore, subject to sampling variability. For example, the standard error on the estimated rental vacancy rate of 7.4 is 0.2 percentage points. Consequently, the 90 percent confidence interval as shown by these data is from 7.1 to 7.7; i.e., the interval 7.4 +/- (1.6 x 0.2) percentage points. Thus, one can say with about 90 percent confidence that the average estimate derived from all possible samples is included in this confidence interval. The 90 percent confidence intervals are shown in the text above for selected items. The standard errors for other figures in this release are given in the tables. Hypothesis testing may be performed at various levels of significance, where a level of significance is the probability of concluding that the parameters are different when, in fact, they are identical. All statements of comparison in the text have passed a hypothesis test at the 0.10 level of significance. This means that, for differences cited in the text, the estimated difference between characteristics is greater than 1.6 times the standard error of the difference. In addition to sampling error, the figures in this release, both the estimates and their standard errors, are also subject to nonsampling error. Source: U.S. Census Bureau