MARCH 1997 NEW HOUSING SALES AT ANNUAL RATE OF 813,000 Sales of new one-family houses in March 1997 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 813,000, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3 (+/-9) percent below the revised February rate of 834,000, but 14 (+/-10) percent above the March 1996 rate of 711,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March was $142,500; the mean sales price was $171,500. At the end of March the seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 297,000. This represents a supply of 4.5 months at the current sales rate. Through March 1997 there were 209,000 houses sold compared with 191,000 houses sold during the same period last year. This is an increase of 9 (+/-6) percent. New Home Sales data for April 1997 will be released on May 30, 1997, at 10:00 AM EDT. NEW PRICE INDEX With this release, we begin a new price index series, a Fisher Ideal chained annual-weighted index, having 1992 as the base year. The price index of new one-family houses sold was 117.3 (1992=100.0) for the first quarter of 1997. This is up 1.9 (+/-0.8) percent from the fourth quarter 1996 index of 115.1. The first quarter 1996 index was 115.3. See Current Construction Reports, C25/97-3, NEW ONE-FAMILY HOUSES SOLD, for a description of this index and data back to 1979. EXPLANATORY NOTES These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability and errors of response and nonreporting. Estimated average relative standard errors of the data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "an increase of 3 (+/-4) percent" appears in the text, this indicates the range (from -1 percent to +7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occured. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals. If the range contains zero, it is unclear whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The December 1995/January 1996 issue of CURRENT CONSTRUCTION REPORTS (C25) includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 4 months to establish a trend. On the average, preliminary monthly sales estimates are revised +/- 5 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. The Bureau is in the process of changing its method of collecting data on new home sales with the introduction of computerized collection. By July of this year we will complete the transition from paper and pencil data collection to the use of laptop computers. We anticipate data collection will be more timely and efficient than in the past. During this transition we are continuing to closely monitor all operations. NEW ONE-FAMILY HOUSES SOLD: MARCH 1997 United North- Mid- Period States east west South West Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1996 - March 711 51 131 322 206 April 741 61 124 330 226 May 732 57 138 341 196 June 732 75 133 323 202 July 782 82 139 345 217 August 814 84 160 365 205 September 768 93 129 341 205 October 706 69 113 329 195 November 788 78 127 368 216 December(r) 794 76 152 356 210 1997 - January(r) 825 111 137 380 198 February(r) 834 112 120 392 209 MARCH(p) 813 94 123 351 246 AVG. RSE(%) 6 20 12 10 9 Not seasonally adjusted 1995 667 55 125 300 187 1996(r) 757 74 137 337 209 AVG. RSE(%) 2 6 7 3 4 1996 First 3 months 191 12 34 87 58 1997 First 3 months 209 22 31 98 58 AVG. RSE(%) 3 11 7 4 4 1996 - March 70 4 13 32 20 December(r) 51 6 9 23 13 1997 - January(r) 61 7 9 30 15 February(r) 70 8 9 34 19 MARCH(p) 78 7 13 34 25 AVG. RSE(%) 6 20 12 10 9 Number of houses in thousands. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. YTD - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the current period and the same period last year. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period(January-June or July-December). NEW ONE-FAMILY HOUSES FOR SALE AT END OF PERIOD AND MONTHS SUPPLY AT CURRENT SALES RATE: MARCH 1997 Seasonally adjusted Not Seasonally adjusted Houses Months Houses for sale Months for supply supply Period sale (1) (1) United States United North- Mid- South West States east west 1995 (X) (X) 374 62 69 158 86 (X) 1996(r) (X) (X) 326 38 67 146 74 (X) AVG. RSE(%) (X) (X) 4 15 8 5 5 (X) 1996 - March 367 6.2 362 59 66 159 79 5.2 April 368 6.0 366 59 67 163 77 5.2 May 362 5.9 360 61 67 158 74 5.2 June 355 5.9 355 59 66 156 74 5.5 July 352 5.6 351 56 65 155 75 5.3 August 343 5.2 342 51 64 153 74 4.7 September 331 5.3 332 45 65 148 73 5.3 October 330 5.7 332 42 68 147 76 6.0 November 327 5.1 330 41 69 147 73 6.1 December(r) 322 5.0 326 38 67 146 74 6.4 1997 - January(r) 314 4.7 314 35 66 140 73 5.2 February(r) 307 4.4 303 31 65 137 71 4.3 MARCH(p) 297 4.5 294 29 65 133 67 3.8 AVG. RSE(%) 4 7 4 15 8 5 5 7 Number of houses in thousands. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (1) Ratio of houses for sale to houses sold. Seasonally adjusted ratio derived from unadjusted ratio. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period(January-June or July-December). MEDIAN AND AVERAGE SALES PRICE: MARCH 1997 Period Median Average 1995 133,900 158,700 1996(r) 140,000 166,400 AVG. RSE(%) 2 2 1996 - March 137,000 162,100 December(r) 144,900 171,800 1997 - January(r) 145,000 171,100 February(r) 141,000 169,900 MARCH(p) 142,500 171,500 AVG. RSE(%) 5 4 Dollars. Includes value of improved lot. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period(January-June or July-December). Source: Construction Reports, Series C25, New One-Family Houses Sold. C25 Reports are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. Telephone (202) 512-1800. Annual subscription: $35.00. Questions regarding these data may be directed to Dale R. Jacobson, Residential Construction Branch. Telephone (301) 457-4666.