NEW HOUSES SOLD IN JANUARY 1997 Sales of new one-family houses in January 1997 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9 (+/-11 percent) above the revised December rate of 801,000 and 20 (+/-12) percent above the January 1996 rate of 727,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January was $145,000; the mean sales price was $172,800. At the end of January the seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 314,000. This represents a supply of 4.5 months at the current sales rate. New Home Sales data for February 1997 will be released on March 28, 1997, at 10:00 AM EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability and errors of response and nonreporting. Estimated average relative standard errors of the data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "an increase of 3 (+/-4) percent" appears in the text, this indicates the range (from -1 percent to +7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occured. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals. If the range contains zero, it is unclear whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The January 1997 issue of CURRENT CONSTRUCTION REPORTS (C25) will include explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 4 months to establish a trend. On the average, preliminary monthly sales estimates are revised +/- 5 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. The Bureau is in the process of changing its method of collecting data on new home sales with the introduction of computerized collection. By January more than 50 percent of the data were collected using this new technology. The Bureau has been studying how the change in data collection affects new home sales estimates and has observed that during this transition period there seems to be an upward bias in the estimates. Until the impact of the transition is fully understood, the Bureau will adopt procedures that dampen monthly fluctuations in the estimates. The Bureau will inform users of the procedures employed until the changeover in data collection is completed. TABLE 1. NEW HOUSES SOLD AND FOR SALE AND MONTHS SUPPLY AT CURRENT SALES RATE (IN THOUSANDS) NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOLD FOR SALE MONTHS SUPPLY SOLD FOR SALE MONTHS SUPPLY AT CURRENT SALES RATE AT CURRENT SALES RATE ANNUAL DATA 1995.......................... 667 374 (X) (X) (X) (X) 1996\r........................ 758 325 (X) (X) (X) (X) MONTHLY DATA 1994: JANUARY............... 46 294 6.4 619 294 5.9 FEBRUARY.............. 58 292 5.0 686 295 5.0 MARCH................. 74 296 4.0 747 298 4.8 APRIL................. 65 296 4.5 692 297 5.2 MAY................... 65 301 4.6 691 302 5.3 JUNE.................. 55 316 5.7 621 315 6.2 JULY.................. 52 318 6.0 628 319 6.3 AUGUST................ 59 323 5.5 656 323 6.1 SEPTEMBER............. 54 332 6.1 677 331 6.0 OCTOBER............... 57 331 5.9 715 330 5.6 NOVEMBER.............. 45 335 7.5 646 333 6.3 DECEMBER.............. 40 340 8.5 629 336 6.6 1995: JANUARY............... 47 340 7.3 633 341 6.7 FEBRUARY.............. 47 341 7.2 565 345 7.2 MARCH................. 60 343 5.7 614 346 6.8 APRIL................. 58 344 5.9 619 347 6.8 MAY................... 63 346 5.5 667 347 6.3 JUNE.................. 64 349 5.4 718 348 5.9 JULY.................. 64 343 5.3 769 345 5.6 AUGUST................ 63 350 5.5 703 351 6.1 SEPTEMBER............. 54 354 6.5 682 353 6.4 OCTOBER............... 54 361 6.7 688 360 6.4 NOVEMBER.............. 46 371 8.0 673 367 6.7 DECEMBER.............. 45 374 8.4 697 370 6.5 1996: JANUARY............... 54 370 6.9 727 370 6.3 FEBRUARY.............. 68 362 5.3 778 354 5.1 MARCH................. 70 362 5.2 711 367 6.2 APRIL................. 70 366 5.2 741 368 6.0 MAY................... 69 360 5.2 732 362 5.9 JUNE.................. 65 355 5.5 732 355 5.9 JULY.................. 66 351 5.3 782 352 5.6 AUGUST................ 73 342 4.7 814 343 5.2 SEPTEMBER............. 62 332 5.3 768 331 5.3 OCTOBER\r............. 56 332 6.0 706 330 5.7 NOVEMBER\r............ 55 330 6.0 797 327 5.0 DECEMBER\r............ 51 325 6.3 801 322 5.0 1997: JANUARY\p............. 64 314 4.9 870 314 4.5 AVERAGE RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS ANNUAL (PERCENT).............. 2 4 (X) (X) (X) (X) MONTHLY (PERCENT.............. 6 4 7 6 4 7 NOTE: SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA HAVE BEEN REVISED. p Preliminary. r Revised. X Not applicable. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period (January-June or July-December). TABLE 2. HOUSES SOLD AND FOR SALE, BY REGION (THOUSANDS OF HOUSES. COMPONENTS MAY NOT ADD TO TOTAL BECAUSE OF ROUNDING) FOR SALE AT END OF PERIOD SOLD DURING PERIOD (NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE UNITED NORTH- MID- UNITED NORTH- MID- UNITED NORTH- MID- STATES EAST WEST SOUTH WEST STATES EAST WEST SOUTH WEST STATES EAST WEST SOUTH WEST 1995................ 667 55 125 300 187 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 374 62 69 158 86 1996\r.............. 758 74 137 338 209 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 325 38 68 146 74 MONTHLY DATA 1994: JANUARY..... 46 3 8 21 13 619 50 128 273 168 294 52 46 122 73 FEBRUARY.... 58 3 11 25 19 686 49 135 293 209 292 50 46 123 72 MARCH....... 74 5 13 33 22 747 65 130 328 224 296 50 48 123 74 APRIL....... 65 5 13 28 18 692 62 127 310 192 296 50 49 122 74 MAY......... 65 6 12 29 18 691 63 125 312 192 301 51 51 123 76 JUNE........ 55 5 11 23 16 621 54 119 263 185 316 52 55 129 79 JULY........ 52 4 9 24 16 628 51 108 282 188 318 54 55 129 80 AUGUST...... 59 7 10 24 18 656 72 112 270 201 323 54 57 134 79 SEPTEMBER... 54 7 9 23 15 677 83 111 296 187 332 53 61 139 80 OCTOBER..... 57 6 11 23 16 715 67 141 302 206 331 52 62 137 80 NOVEMBER.... 45 5 9 19 12 646 64 126 275 181 335 53 62 139 81 DECEMBER.... 40 4 7 20 10 629 49 113 303 165 340 55 63 140 82 1995: JANUARY..... 47 4 7 22 14 633 66 114 279 174 340 55 62 143 81 FEBRUARY.... 47 4 9 23 11 565 62 108 270 125 341 54 62 143 82 MARCH....... 60 5 12 27 16 614 60 121 268 166 343 55 62 146 80 APRIL....... 58 5 13 24 16 619 55 127 264 173 344 56 61 148 80 MAY......... 63 5 12 26 20 667 53 122 283 208 346 58 61 149 79 JUNE........ 64 7 12 26 19 718 74 134 297 214 349 57 62 151 78 JULY........ 64 5 11 31 17 769 53 138 376 202 343 58 63 145 77 AUGUST...... 63 4 12 28 19 703 49 135 310 208 350 59 64 149 78 SEPTEMBER... 54 4 10 24 17 682 40 131 306 206 354 60 64 151 78 OCTOBER..... 54 5 10 25 15 688 52 126 314 197 361 62 66 153 79 NOVEMBER.... 46 3 9 21 13 673 43 131 304 195 371 64 69 156 82 DECEMBER.... 45 6 7 20 12 697 79 120 305 193 374 62 69 158 86 1996: JANUARY..... 54 3 10 24 17 727 50 158 308 212 370 61 66 158 85 FEBRUARY.... 68 5 11 31 21 778 65 132 352 229 362 58 66 157 81 MARCH....... 70 4 13 32 20 711 51 131 322 206 362 59 66 159 79 APRIL....... 70 6 13 30 21 741 61 124 330 226 366 59 67 163 77 MAY......... 69 5 14 32 19 732 57 138 341 196 360 61 67 158 74 JUNE........ 65 7 12 28 18 732 75 133 323 202 355 59 66 156 74 JULY........ 66 7 12 29 18 782 82 139 345 217 351 56 65 155 75 AUGUST...... 73 8 14 33 19 814 84 160 365 205 342 51 64 153 74 SEPTEMBER... 62 9 10 27 17 768 93 129 341 205 332 45 65 148 73 OCTOBER\r... 56 6 9 26 15 706 69 113 329 195 332 42 68 147 76 NOVEMBER\r.. 55 6 9 26 14 797 82 126 374 215 330 40 69 147 73 DECEMBER\r.. 51 6 9 23 12 801 82 156 360 204 325 38 68 146 74 1997: JANUARY\p... 64 8 9 32 15 870 134 140 403 192 314 34 67 140 74 AVERAGE RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS ANNUAL (PERCENT).... 2 6 7 3 4 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 4 15 8 5 5 MONTHLY (PERCENT)... 6 20 12 10 9 6 20 12 10 9 4 15 8 5 5 NOTE: SEASONALL ADJUSTED DATA HAVE BEEN REVISED. p Preliminary. R Revised. X Not appilcable. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period (January-June or July-December). TABLE 3. MEDIAN AND AVERAGE SALES PRICE: JANUARY 1997 Period Median Average 1995 133,900 158,700 1996\r 140,000 166,000 AVG. RSE(%) 2 2 1996 - January 131,900 155,300 October(r) 143,800 168,400 November(r) 143,200 171,700 December(r) 143,000 171,300 1997 - JANUARY(p) 145,000 172,800 AVG. RSE(%) 5 4 Dollars. Includes value of improved lot. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. AVG. RSE(%): Annual - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the last two years. Monthly - Avg. Relative Standard Error for the latest six month period (January-June or July-December). Source: Construction Reports, Series C25, New One-Family Houses Sold. C25 Reports are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. Annual subscription: $30.00. Questions regarding these data may be directed to Steve Berman, Residential Construction Branch, telephone (301) 457-4666.