For Release 8:30 A.M. EST, Wednesday, November 17, 1999 CB99-221 HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN OCTOBER 1999 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,628,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This virtually unchanged (+/-6 percent) from the revised September rate of 1,626,000, but 4 (+/-7) percent below the October 1998 rate of 1,698,000. Single-family housing starts in October 1999 were at a rate of 1,325,000; this is 3 (+/-6) percent above the September figure of 1,289,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 270,000. The October rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 33,000. During the first 10 months of this year, 1,421,100 housing units were started compared with 1,373,100 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 3 (+/-2) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in October was 1,584,000; this is 5 (+/-1) percent above the revised September rate of 1,506,000, but 8 (+/-1) percent below the October 1998 estimate of 1,726,000. Single-family authorizations in October 1999 were at a rate of 1,165,000; this is 1 (+/-1) percent below the September figure of 1,171,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 355,000 in October; this is 31 percent above the September estimate of 272,000. The October rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 64,000. During the first 10 months of this year, 1,397,300 housing units were authorized by building permits compared with 1,359,700 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 3 (+/-1) percent. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Friday, December 17, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to- month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts and 3 months for building permit authorizations. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The April 1999 Current Construction Reports, C20/99-4, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Housing starts and building permits data do not include manufactured home units. Manufactured home statistics are available through the Internet at www.census.gov/const/www/mhsindex.html. For further information on these data, contact the Census Bureau's Construction Expenditures Branch, Manufacturing and Construction Division, telephone 301-457-1605. Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone (301)457-1321. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1998 - October 1698 1298 40 360 155 350 835 358 November 1654 1375 30 249 153 324 759 418 December 1750 1383 29 338 157 416 747 430 1999 - January 1820 1393 57 370 150 335 901 434 February 1752 1380 27 345 206 342 842 362 March 1746 1394 33 319 147 381 821 397 April 1577 1260 30 287 137 335 706 399 May 1668 1389 26 253 158 361 734 415 June 1607 1305 29 273 167 361 717 362 July 1680 1332 39 309 169 318 757 436 August (r) 1655 1289 31 335 171 337 751 396 September (r) 1626 1289 32 305 125 377 737 387 October (p) 1628 1325 33 270 130 378 755 365 Average RSE (%) 3 3 9 9 7 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1997 1474.0 1133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 1998 1616.9 1271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1998 First 10 months 1,373.1 1,080.2 13.9 24.2 254.9 125.8 280.4 630.2 336.8 1999 First 10 months 1,421.1 1,141.3 11.5 16.3 251.9 129.8 303.5 648.7 339.1 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 13 3 3 2 2 1 1998 - October 155.5 113.5 1.2 3.0 37.7 16.0 36.4 71.9 31.3 November 124.2 101.3 0.9 1.9 20.1 12.0 25.1 58.8 28.3 December 119.6 89.8 0.9 0.8 28.0 10.7 25.0 54.0 29.9 1999 - January 108.0 82.1 0.7 2.0 23.3 7.9 13.5 57.3 29.2 February 112.2 89.1 0.7 0.8 21.6 9.6 16.5 62.1 24.1 March 149.3 122.9 1.4 1.4 23.6 12.1 29.2 73.1 34.9 April 146.5 118.8 1.8 1.2 24.8 12.1 32.6 64.9 36.9 May 155.6 130.4 1.1 1.1 23.0 14.7 35.7 66.9 38.3 June 152.4 127.9 1.2 1.8 21.5 16.0 38.1 63.9 34.4 July 155.2 123.4 1.2 2.6 28.0 17.3 31.3 66.6 39.9 August (r) 155.0 119.7 1.2 1.6 32.5 16.5 33.5 68.0 37.0 September (r) 142.3 112.3 0.9 1.6 27.5 11.7 34.9 62.0 33.7 October (p) 144.5 114.8 1.3 2.2 26.2 12.0 38.0 63.8 30.7 Average RSE (%) 3 3 11 13 9 7 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 - October 1726 1210 69 447 174 336 801 415 November 1688 1254 63 371 178 338 723 449 December 1708 1296 77 335 177 399 733 399 1999 - January 1778 1279 79 420 169 324 833 452 February 1738 1306 72 360 181 352 810 395 March 1654 1242 69 343 163 356 744 391 April 1572 1214 67 291 162 338 692 380 May 1591 1243 59 289 155 338 692 406 June 1641 1241 64 336 167 330 736 408 July 1641 1247 63 331 157 323 761 400 August 1619 1210 66 343 157 333 746 383 September (r) 1506 1171 63 272 147 333 664 362 October (p) 1584 1165 64 355 142 332 742 368 Average RSE (%) 1 (Z) 5 1 2 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 1,441.1 1,062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 1998 1,612.3 1,187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 Average RSE (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 1998 First 10 months 1,359.7 1,007.9 27.0 31.1 293.7 132.0 272.2 617.2 338.4 1999 First 10 months 1,397.3 1,058.1 27.3 28.5 283.4 136.8 287.4 635.6 337.5 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 3 (Z) 1 1 1 1 1998 - October 149.8 103.8 3.0 3.7 39.3 15.7 32.4 65.8 35.9 November 119.9 86.6 2.4 2.3 28.6 13.4 24.9 51.2 30.3 December 124.5 89.0 3.1 2.6 29.8 12.7 26.5 55.1 30.2 1999 - January 105.3 73.7 2.2 2.3 27.1 9.0 13.3 55.9 27.1 February 113.3 85.8 2.2 2.4 22.9 9.5 18.6 58.6 26.6 March 152.1 117.7 2.9 3.1 28.4 14.0 31.5 69.8 36.7 April 149.1 118.3 2.9 3.3 24.6 15.1 33.7 65.8 34.6 May 141.7 114.1 2.7 2.3 22.6 14.2 32.8 59.3 35.3 June 165.6 125.7 3.4 3.2 33.2 18.0 33.6 71.0 43.0 July 145.5 112.4 2.5 2.7 27.8 14.6 29.5 65.5 35.9 August 147.4 110.3 2.6 3.3 31.2 14.9 32.2 66.7 33.6 September (r) 133.0 100.9 3.1 2.6 26.4 12.9 31.0 56.7 32.4 October (p) 132.2 94.2 2.7 3.2 32.1 12.3 30.4 59.7 29.8 Average RSE (%) 1 (Z) 3 7 1 2 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 -October 129.7 76.6 3.3 49.9 13.0 19.0 72.8 24.9 1999 -August (r) 150.1 92.1 5.0 53.1 15.7 22.3 84.8 27.3 September (r) 145.7 92.6 5.2 48.0 16.3 21.1 80.2 28.2 October (p) 135.1 81.4 3.2 50.5 14.7 16.3 77.0 27.2 Average RSE (%) 3 4 8 5 13 8 4 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).