For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT, Tuesday, August 17, 1999 CB99-156 HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN JULY 1999 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,661,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 6 (+/-6) percent above the revised June rate of 1,571,000, but 3 (+/-7) percent below the July 1998 rate of 1,719,000. Single-family housing starts in July 1999 were at a rate of 1,328,000; this is 4 (+/-6) percent above the June figure of 1,272,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 300,000. The July rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 33,000. During the first 7 months of this year, 976,500 housing units were started compared with 928,600 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 5 (+/-2) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in July was 1,632,000; this is 1 (+/-1) percent below the revised June rate of 1,641,000, but is virtually unchanged (+/-1 percent)from the July 1998 estimate of 1,626,000. Single-family authorizations in July 1999 were at a rate of 1,239,000; this is virtually unchanged (+/-1 percent) from the June figure of 1,241,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 331,000 in July. The July rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 62,000. During the first 7 months of this year, 977,500 housing units were authorized by building permits compared with 925,900 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 6 (+/-1) percent. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Friday, September 17, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to- month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts and 3 months for building permit authorizations. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The April 1999 Current Construction Reports, C20/99-4, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Housing starts and building permits data do not include manufactured home units. Manufactured home statistics are available through the Internet at www.census.gov/const/www/index.html. For further information on these data, contact the Census Bureau's Construction Expenditures Branch, Manufacturing and Construction Division, telephone 301-457-1605. Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone (301)457-1321. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1998 - July 1719 1306 41 372 154 314 818 433 August 1615 1264 50 301 142 316 770 387 September 1576 1251 27 298 135 316 717 408 October 1698 1298 40 360 155 350 835 358 November 1654 1375 30 249 153 324 759 418 December 1750 1383 29 338 157 416 747 430 1999 - January 1820 1393 57 370 150 335 901 434 February 1752 1380 27 345 206 342 842 362 March 1746 1394 33 319 147 381 821 397 April 1577 1260 30 287 137 335 706 399 May (r) 1668 1389 26 253 158 361 734 415 June (r) 1571 1272 30 269 159 357 703 352 July (p) 1661 1328 33 300 169 297 763 432 Average RSE (%) 3 3 9 9 7 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1997 1474.0 1133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 1998 1616.9 1271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1998 First 7 months 928.6 739.2 10.2 16.8 162.4 83.7 182.9 428.3 233.7 1999 First 7 months 976.5 792.9 8.0 10.3 165.3 89.2 195.3 455.0 236.9 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 14 4 5 3 2 1 1998 - July 156.0 120.5 1.5 2.3 31.7 15.3 31.2 70.6 38.8 August 147.5 115.1 1.4 3.2 27.8 12.9 31.3 67.7 35.5 September 141.5 112.4 1.0 1.3 26.9 13.1 29.8 62.3 36.3 October 155.5 113.5 1.2 3.0 37.7 16.0 36.4 71.9 31.3 November 124.2 101.3 0.9 1.9 20.1 12.0 25.1 58.8 28.3 December 119.6 89.8 0.9 0.8 28.0 10.7 25.0 54.0 29.9 1999 - January 108.0 82.1 0.7 2.0 23.3 7.9 13.5 57.3 29.2 February 112.2 89.1 0.7 0.8 21.6 9.6 16.5 62.1 24.1 March 149.3 122.9 1.4 1.4 23.6 12.1 29.2 73.1 34.9 April 146.5 118.8 1.8 1.2 24.8 12.1 32.6 64.9 36.9 May (r) 155.6 130.4 1.1 1.1 23.0 14.7 35.7 66.9 38.3 June (r) 152.1 127.5 1.1 1.9 21.6 15.9 38.0 64.4 33.8 July (p) 152.7 122.2 1.1 2.0 27.4 17.1 29.7 66.2 39.8 Average RSE (%) 3 3 11 13 9 7 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 - July 1626 1191 74 361 160 315 744 407 August 1670 1202 72 396 158 312 800 400 September 1569 1171 70 328 159 320 708 382 October 1726 1210 69 447 174 336 801 415 November 1688 1254 63 371 178 338 723 449 December 1708 1296 77 335 177 399 733 399 1999 - January 1778 1279 79 420 169 324 833 452 February 1738 1306 72 360 181 352 810 395 March 1654 1242 69 343 163 356 744 391 April 1572 1214 67 291 162 338 692 380 May 1591 1243 59 289 155 338 692 406 June (r) 1641 1241 64 336 167 330 736 408 July (p) 1632 1239 62 331 155 318 765 394 Average RSE (%) 1 (Z) 5 1 2 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 1,441.1 1,062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 1998 1,612.3 1,187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 Average RSE (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 1998 First 7 months 925.9 697.6 18.3 20.7 189.3 87.8 181.7 422.5 233.9 1999 First 7 months 977.5 750.1 18.9 19.1 189.4 94.8 192.6 450.8 239.2 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 4 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1998 - July 149.3 111.2 3.3 3.2 31.7 15.4 29.7 66.1 38.0 August 144.7 104.4 3.1 3.0 34.1 14.3 28.9 67.1 34.4 September 141.7 102.5 2.9 3.4 32.9 14.7 30.3 62.2 34.7 October 149.8 103.8 3.0 3.7 39.3 15.7 32.4 65.8 35.9 November 119.9 86.6 2.4 2.3 28.6 13.4 24.9 51.2 30.3 December 124.5 89.0 3.1 2.6 29.8 12.7 26.5 55.1 30.2 1999 - January 105.3 73.7 2.2 2.3 27.1 9.0 13.3 55.9 27.1 February 113.3 85.8 2.2 2.4 22.9 9.5 18.6 58.6 26.6 March 152.1 117.7 2.9 3.1 28.4 14.0 31.5 69.8 36.7 April 149.1 118.3 2.9 3.3 24.6 15.1 33.7 65.8 34.6 May 141.7 114.1 2.7 2.3 22.6 14.2 32.8 59.3 35.3 June (r) 165.6 125.7 3.4 3.2 33.2 18.0 33.6 71.0 43.0 July (p) 144.7 111.7 2.6 2.6 27.8 14.3 29.0 66.0 35.3 Average RSE (%) 1 (Z) 3 7 1 2 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 -July 130.0 77.2 5.4 47.4 12.0 22.0 70.0 25.9 1999 -May (r) 139.5 86.9 3.4 49.1 18.9 24.4 71.0 25.1 June (r) 157.0 96.6 3.6 56.7 20.5 21.3 80.6 34.6 July (p) 154.4 95.9 3.2 55.3 17.5 22.2 84.0 30.9 Average RSE (%) 3 4 8 5 13 8 4 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).