For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT, Wednesday, July 21, 1999 CB99-138 HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN JUNE 1999 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,571,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 6 (+/-6) percent below the revised May rate of 1,665,000 and 3 (+/-7) percent below the June 1998 rate of 1,626,000. Single-family housing starts in June 1999 were at a rate of 1,274,000; this is 9 (+/-6) percent below the May figure of 1,395,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 267,000. The June rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 30,000. During the first 6 months of this year, 823,900 housing units were started compared with 772,700 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 7 (+/-2) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in June was 1,621,000; this is 2 (+/-1) percent above the revised May rate of 1,591,000 and 6 (+/-1) percent above the June 1998 estimate of 1,531,000. Single-family authorizations in June 1999 were at a rate of 1,231,000; this is 1 (+/-1) percent below the May figure of 1,243,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 330,000 in June; this is 14 percent above the May estimate of 289,000. The June rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 60,000. During the first 6 months of this year, 830,600 housing units were authorized by building permits compared with 777,300 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 7 (+/-1) percent. MANUFACTURED HOME SHIPMENTS In May, manufacturers' shipments of homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 365,000; this is 1 percent below the April figure of 368,000. The May 1998 rate was 372,000. Before seasonal adjustment, total shipments in May 1999 were 30,600. Statistics on manufactured home shipments, which lag by 1 month, are available through the Internet at www.census.gov/const/www/index.html. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Tuesday, August 17, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to- month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts, 3 months for building permit authorizations, and 2 months for manufactured home shipments. Except for those on manufactured home shipments, the statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response,nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors ofpreliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2(±3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent)in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change isstatistically significant. The April 1999 Current Construction Reports,C20/99-4, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about ±1 percent. Statistics on manufactured home shipments are compiled from manufacturers' reports to the National Conference of States on Building Codes and Standards (NCSBCS). Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone (301)457-1321. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1998 - June 1,626 1,274 45 307 139 315 756 416 July 1,719 1,306 41 372 154 314 818 433 August 1,615 1,264 50 301 142 316 770 387 September 1,576 1,251 27 298 135 316 717 408 October 1,698 1,298 40 360 155 350 835 358 November 1,654 1,375 30 249 153 324 759 418 December 1,750 1,383 29 338 157 416 747 430 1999 - January 1,820 1,393 57 370 150 335 901 434 February 1,752 1,380 27 345 206 342 842 362 March 1,746 1,394 33 319 147 381 821 397 April (r) 1,577 1,260 30 287 137 335 706 399 May (r) 1,665 1,395 27 243 159 358 735 413 June (p) 1,571 1,274 30 267 159 359 701 352 Average RSE (%) 3 3 9 9 7 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1997 1474.0 1133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 1998 1616.9 1271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1998 First 6 months 772.7 618.8 8.7 14.5 130.7 68.4 151.6 357.7 194.9 1999 First 6 months 823.9 671.3 7.0 8.6 137.0 72.6 165.0 388.9 197.5 Average RSE (%) 1 1 8 17 5 6 3 2 1 1998 - June 159.6 128.7 1.7 3.0 26.1 14.0 33.7 70.4 41.5 July 156.0 120.5 1.5 2.3 31.7 15.3 31.2 70.6 38.8 August 147.5 115.1 1.4 3.2 27.8 12.9 31.3 67.7 35.5 September 141.5 112.4 1.0 1.3 26.9 13.1 29.8 62.3 36.3 October 155.5 113.5 1.2 3.0 37.7 16.0 36.4 71.9 31.3 November 124.2 101.3 0.9 1.9 20.1 12.0 25.1 58.8 28.3 December 119.6 89.8 0.9 0.8 28.0 10.7 25.0 54.0 29.9 1999 - January 108.0 82.1 0.7 2.0 23.3 7.9 13.5 57.3 29.2 February 112.2 89.1 0.7 0.8 21.6 9.6 16.5 62.1 24.1 March 149.3 122.9 1.4 1.4 23.6 12.1 29.2 73.1 34.9 April (r) 146.5 118.8 1.8 1.2 24.8 12.1 32.6 64.9 36.9 May (r) 155.4 131.0 1.1 1.3 22.0 14.9 35.2 67.1 38.3 June (p) 152.4 127.4 1.3 1.9 21.8 16.1 38.0 64.3 34.0 Average RSE (%) 3 3 11 13 9 7 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 - June 1531 1143 73 315 151 307 680 393 July 1626 1191 74 361 160 315 744 407 August 1670 1202 72 396 158 312 800 400 September 1569 1171 70 328 159 320 708 382 October 1726 1210 69 447 174 336 801 415 November 1688 1254 63 371 178 338 723 449 December 1708 1296 77 335 177 399 733 399 1999 - January 1778 1279 79 420 169 324 833 452 February 1738 1306 72 360 181 352 810 395 March 1654 1242 69 343 163 356 744 391 April 1572 1214 67 291 162 338 692 380 May (r) 1591 1243 59 289 155 338 692 406 June (p) 1621 1231 60 330 168 332 717 404 Average RSE (%) 1 (Z) 5 1 2 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 1441.1 1062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 1998 1612.3 1187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 Average RSE (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 1998 First 6 months 777.3 586.7 15.1 17.5 158.0 72.5 152.4 356.3 196.1 1999 First 6 months 830.6 637.2 16.0 16.1 161.2 80.3 164.3 382.0 204.0 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 4 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1998 - June 153.4 115.8 3.2 4.3 30.1 16.0 31.6 65.0 40.8 July 149.3 111.2 3.3 3.2 31.7 15.4 29.7 66.1 38.0 August 144.7 104.4 3.1 3.0 34.1 14.3 28.9 67.1 34.4 September 141.7 102.5 2.9 3.4 32.9 14.7 30.3 62.2 34.7 October 149.8 103.8 3.0 3.7 39.3 15.7 32.4 65.8 35.9 November 119.9 86.6 2.4 2.3 28.6 13.4 24.9 51.2 30.3 December 124.5 89.0 3.1 2.6 29.8 12.7 26.5 55.1 30.2 1999 - January 105.3 73.7 2.2 2.3 27.1 9.0 13.3 55.9 27.1 February 113.3 85.8 2.2 2.4 22.9 9.5 18.6 58.6 26.6 March 152.1 117.7 2.9 3.1 28.4 14.0 31.5 69.8 36.7 April 149.1 118.3 2.9 3.3 24.6 15.1 33.7 65.8 34.6 May (r) 141.7 114.1 2.7 2.3 22.6 14.2 32.8 59.3 35.3 June (p) 163.2 124.6 3.1 2.9 32.7 18.2 33.7 68.9 42.5 Average RSE (%) 1 (Z) 3 7 1 2 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 - June 135.3 78.7 4.7 51.9 12.5 22.0 72.3 28.4 1999 - April (r) 148.3 94.8 2.8 50.7 19.7 25.5 75.5 27.6 May (r) 140.2 87.8 3.2 49.2 18.8 25.2 71.3 25.0 June (p) 156.0 96.9 3.1 56.0 20.6 21.5 79.3 34.5 Average RSE (%) 3 4 8 5 13 8 4 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).