HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN APRIL 1999 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,574,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 10 (+/-6) percent below the revised March rate of 1,751,000, but 2 (+/-7) percent above the April 1998 rate of 1,542,000. Single-family housing starts in April 1999 were at a rate of 1,244,000; this is 11 (+/-6) percent below the March figure of 1,398,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 296,000. The April rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 34,000. During the first 4 months of this year, 515,200 housing units were started compared with 469,800 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 10 (+/-3) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in April was 1,569,000; this is 5 (+/-1) percent below the revised March rate of 1,654,000, but 3 (+/-1) percent above the revised April 1998 estimate of 1,529,000. Single-family authorizations in April 1999 were at a rate of 1,205,000; this is 3 (+/-1) percent below the March figure of 1,242,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 296,000 in April; this is 14 percent below the March estimate of 343,000. The April rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 68,000. During the first 4 months of this year, 522,400 housing units were authorized by building permits compared with 487,200 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 7 (+/-1) percent. MANUFACTURED HOME SHIPMENTS Statistics on manufactured home shipments, which lag by 1 month, appear in the Current Construction Reports, series C20. In March, manufacturers' shipments of homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 383,000; this is 1 percent above the February figure of 381,000. The March 1998 rate was 370,000. Before seasonal adjustment, total shipments in March 1999 were 34,200. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Wednesday, June 16, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts, 3 months for building permit authorizations, and 2 months for manufactured home shipments. Except for those on manufactured home shipments, the statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The April 1999 Current Construction Reports, C20/99-4, will include explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Statistics on manufactured home shipments are compiled from manufacturers' reports to the National Conference of States on Building Codes and Standards (NCSBCS). Seasonally adjusted statistics for building permits, January 1997 through March 1999, and unadjusted statistics for January through December 1998 have been revised. These revisions will appear in the April 1999 Current Construction Reports, C20/99-4. Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone (301)457-1321. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1998 - April 1,542 1,235 43 264 127 345 688 382 May 1,541 1,221 50 270 151 299 708 383 June 1,626 1,274 45 307 139 315 756 416 July 1,719 1,306 41 372 154 314 818 433 August 1,615 1,264 50 301 142 316 770 387 September 1,576 1,251 27 298 135 316 717 408 October 1,698 1,298 40 360 155 350 835 358 November 1,654 1,375 30 249 153 324 759 418 December 1,750 1,383 29 338 157 416 747 430 1999 - January 1,820 1,393 57 370 150 335 901 434 February (r) 1,752 1,380 27 345 206 342 842 362 March (r) 1,751 1,398 34 319 148 384 821 398 April (p) 1,574 1,244 34 296 138 328 702 406 Average RSE (%) 3 2 13 9 7 7 4 3 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1997 1,474.0 1,133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 1998 1,616.9 1,271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1998 First 4 months 469.8 375.6 5.0 8.9 80.2 40.3 88.2 222.8 118.5 1999 First 4 months 515.2 411.7 4.4 6.2 93.0 41.8 90.9 256.4 126.1 Average RSE (%) 1 1 9 17 6 9 4 2 2 1998 - April 144.9 117.3 1.8 2.2 23.7 11.9 33.2 65.4 34.4 May 143.3 114.4 1.9 2.6 24.3 14.1 29.7 64.5 34.9 June 159.6 128.7 1.7 3.0 26.1 14.0 33.7 70.4 41.5 July 156.0 120.5 1.5 2.3 31.7 15.3 31.2 70.6 38.8 August 147.5 115.1 1.4 3.2 27.8 12.9 31.3 67.7 35.5 September 141.5 112.4 1.0 1.3 26.9 13.1 29.8 62.3 36.3 October 155.5 113.5 1.2 3.0 37.7 16.0 36.4 71.9 31.3 November 124.2 101.3 0.9 1.9 20.1 12.0 25.1 58.8 28.3 December 119.6 89.8 0.9 0.8 28.0 10.7 25.0 54.0 29.9 1999 - January 108.0 82.1 0.7 2.0 23.3 7.9 13.5 57.3 29.2 February (r) 112.2 89.1 0.7 0.8 21.6 9.6 16.5 62.1 24.1 March (r) 149.6 123.5 1.4 1.5 23.2 12.3 29.6 72.1 35.7 April (p) 145.4 117 1.6 1.9 25 12.1 31.3 64.9 37.1 Average RSE (%) 3 2 15 20 9 7 7 4 3 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998(r) April 1,529 1,155 57 317 140 306 674 409 May 1,549 1,174 64 311 142 318 713 376 June 1,531 1,143 73 315 151 307 680 393 July 1,626 1,191 74 361 160 315 744 407 August 1,670 1,202 72 396 158 312 800 400 September 1,569 1,171 70 328 159 320 708 382 October 1,726 1,210 69 447 174 336 801 415 November 1,688 1,254 63 371 178 338 723 449 December 1,708 1,296 77 335 177 399 733 399 1999 - January (r) 1,778 1,279 79 420 169 324 833 452 February (r) 1,738 1,306 72 360 181 352 810 395 March (r) 1,654 1,242 69 343 163 356 744 391 April (p) 1,569 1,205 68 296 163 340 689 377 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 1 2 2 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 1,441.1 1,062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 1998 (r) 1,612.3 1,187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 Average RSE (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 1998 First 4 months 487.2 364.3 9.7 10.3 102.9 43.5 91.1 229.0 123.6 1999 First 4 months 522.4 396.8 10.3 11.0 104.3 47.9 97.2 251.9 125.4 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 3 6 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1998(r) April 146.3 113.6 2.7 2.7 27.3 13.2 31.0 63.6 38.5 May 138.2 107.3 2.5 2.9 25.5 13.3 30.7 62.5 31.8 June 153.4 115.8 3.2 4.3 30.1 16.0 31.6 65.0 40.8 July 149.3 111.2 3.3 3.2 31.7 15.4 29.7 66.1 38.0 August 144.7 104.4 3.1 3.0 34.1 14.3 28.9 67.1 34.4 September 141.7 102.5 2.9 3.4 32.9 14.7 30.3 62.2 34.7 October 149.8 103.8 3.0 3.7 39.3 15.7 32.4 65.8 35.9 November 119.9 86.6 2.4 2.3 28.6 13.4 24.9 51.2 30.3 December 124.5 89.0 3.1 2.6 29.8 12.7 26.5 55.1 30.2 1999 - January 105.3 73.7 2.2 2.3 27.1 9.0 13.3 55.9 27.1 February 113.3 85.8 2.2 2.4 22.9 9.5 18.6 58.6 26.6 March (r) 152.1 117.7 2.9 3.1 28.4 14.0 31.5 69.8 36.7 April (p) 148.7 117.5 3.0 3.3 25.0 15.2 33.9 65.4 34.1 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 3 1 2 2 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 -April 135.1 78.4 4.1 52.6 11.9 19.5 72.1 31.7 1999 -February (r) 137.2 78.5 3.3 55.4 16.2 20.5 73.3 27.2 March (r) 142.6 84.2 2.9 55.4 17.6 22.4 74.3 28.3 April (p) 150.4 94.3 3.6 52.4 19.8 26.9 75.6 28.1 Average RSE (%) 4 3 9 8 10 10 5 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).