HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN MARCH 1999 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,766,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 1 (+/-6) percent below the revised February rate of 1,790,000, but 12 (+/-7) percent above the March 1998 rate of 1,583,000. Single-family housing starts in March 1999 were at a rate of 1,401,000; this is virtually unchanged (+/-6 percent) from the February figure of 1,402,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 325,000. The March rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 40,000. During the first 3 months of this year, 372,000 housing units were started compared with 324,900 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 14 (+/-4) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in March was 1,636,000; this is 6 (+/-1) percent below the revised February rate of 1,741,000, but 4 (+/-1) percent above the March 1998 estimate of 1,569,000. Single-family authorizations in February 1999 were at a rate of 1,239,000; this is 5 (+/-1) percent below the February figure of 1,303,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 328,000 in March; this is 10 percent below the February estimate of 364,000. The March rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 69,000. During the first 3 months of this year, 370,400 housing units were authorized by building permits compared with 337,900 units for the same period in 1998. This is an increase of 10 (+/-1) percent. MANUFACTURED HOME SHIPMENTS Statistics on manufactured home shipments, which lag by 1 month, appear in the Current Construction Reports, series C20. In February, manufacturers' shipments of homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 381,000; this is 2 percent below the January figure of 390,000. The February 1998 rate was 370,000. Before seasonal adjustment, total shipments in February 1999 were 28,600. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Tuesday, May 18, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts, 3 months for building permit authorizations, and 2 months for mobile home shipments. Except for those on mobile home shipments, the statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The January 1999 Current Construction Reports, C20/99-1, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Statistics on manufactured home shipments are compiled from manufacturers' reports to the National Conference of States on Building Codes and Standards (NCSBCS). Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone (310)457-1321. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1998 - March 1,583 1,234 44 305 140 320 728 395 April 1,542 1,235 43 264 127 345 688 382 May 1,541 1,221 50 270 151 299 708 383 June 1,626 1,274 45 307 139 315 756 416 July 1,719 1,306 41 372 154 314 818 433 August 1,615 1,264 50 301 142 316 770 387 September 1,576 1,251 27 298 135 316 717 408 October 1,698 1,298 40 360 155 350 835 358 November 1,654 1,375 30 249 153 324 759 418 December 1,750 1,383 29 338 157 416 747 430 1999 - January (r) 1,820 1,393 57 370 150 335 901 434 February (r) 1,790 1,402 28 360 211 355 858 366 March (p) 1,766 1,401 40 325 150 400 821 395 Average RSE (%) 3 2 13 9 7 7 4 3 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1997 1,474.0 1,133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 1998 1,616.9 1,271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1998 First 3 months 324.9 258.4 3.3 6.7 56.6 28.4 55.0 157.4 84.1 1999 First 3 months 372.0 295.0 2.9 5.0 69.1 29.9 60.9 192.3 88.9 Average RSE (%) 2 1 8 18 8 13 4 2 2 1998 - March 132.6 107.2 1.6 1.9 21.9 11.0 23.3 63.2 35.0 April 144.9 117.3 1.8 2.2 23.7 11.9 33.2 65.4 34.4 May 143.3 114.4 1.9 2.6 24.3 14.1 29.7 64.5 34.9 June 159.6 128.7 1.7 3.0 26.1 14.0 33.7 70.4 41.5 July 156.0 120.5 1.5 2.3 31.7 15.3 31.2 70.6 38.8 August 147.5 115.1 1.4 3.2 27.8 12.9 31.3 67.7 35.5 September 141.5 112.4 1.0 1.3 26.9 13.1 29.8 62.3 36.3 October 155.5 113.5 1.2 3.0 37.7 16.0 36.4 71.9 31.3 November 124.2 101.3 0.9 1.9 20.1 12.0 25.1 58.8 28.3 December 119.6 89.8 0.9 0.8 28.0 10.7 25.0 54.0 29.9 1999 - January (r) 108.0 82.1 0.7 2.0 23.3 7.9 13.5 57.3 29.2 February (r) 114.1 90.0 0.8 0.9 22.4 9.7 16.7 63.2 24.4 March (p) 149.9 122.9 1.5 2.1 23.4 12.3 30.7 71.8 35.2 Average RSE (%) 3 2 15 20 9 7 7 4 3 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total Northeast Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 - March 1,569 1,136 71 362 146 311 733 379 April 1,517 1,145 55 317 133 305 664 415 May 1,543 1,152 66 325 133 318 715 377 June 1,517 1,128 74 315 151 307 675 384 July 1,581 1,173 74 334 154 310 724 393 August 1,618 1,180 72 366 144 302 784 388 September 1,544 1,164 69 311 154 309 710 371 October 1,690 1,198 65 427 169 335 789 397 November 1,656 1,238 62 356 171 332 728 425 December 1,729 1,306 77 346 172 413 743 401 1999 - January 1,778 1,275 79 424 169 322 838 449 February (r) 1,741 1,303 74 364 186 354 811 390 March (p) 1,636 1,239 69 328 166 364 724 382 Average relative standa 1 1 4 1 2 2 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 1,441.1 1,062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 1998 1,604.3 1,183.7 32.1 36.4 352.1 157.2 323.2 727.1 396.8 Average relative standa (Z) (Z) 2 4 (Z) 1 1 1 1 1998 First 3 months 337.9 249.7 7.0 7.9 73.3 30.0 59.0 164.7 84.1 1999 First 3 months 370.4 277.8 7.3 7.8 77.4 32.3 64.3 184.6 89.3 Average relative standa (Z) (Z) 2 7 (Z) 3 1 1 1 1998 - March 138.0 103.8 2.8 3.4 28.0 11.7 25.7 67.5 33.1 April 144.7 112.9 2.7 2.7 26.4 12.9 30.8 62.4 38.7 May 137.5 105.9 2.5 3.1 26.0 12.7 30.7 62.2 31.8 June 151.8 115.2 3.1 4.4 29.0 16.1 31.4 64.3 40.0 July 146.8 109.9 3.1 3.5 30.3 14.9 29.6 65.3 37.0 August 142.2 103.3 3.0 3.1 32.7 13.2 28.7 66.3 34.0 September 140.2 102.1 2.9 3.3 31.9 14.4 29.8 62.1 33.9 October 147.6 103.4 2.8 3.5 37.9 15.5 32.6 65.3 34.1 November 118.2 85.6 2.4 2.3 28.0 12.8 24.7 51.9 28.8 December 125.3 89.1 2.8 2.8 30.5 12.2 26.9 56.1 30.1 1999 - January 105.3 73.7 2.2 2.3 27.1 9.0 13.3 55.9 27.1 February (r) 113.3 85.8 2.2 2.4 22.9 9.5 18.6 58.6 26.6 March (p) 150.6 117.5 3.0 3.2 27.0 13.9 32.3 68.8 35.6 Average relative standa 1 1 4 3 1 2 2 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998March 128.9 73.7 4.9 50.3 11.9 18.9 71.0 27.1 1999January (r) 135.3 76.1 2.8 56.4 16.6 18.1 75.3 25.3 February (r) 136.3 78.5 3.0 54.8 16.0 20.4 73.2 26.7 March (p) 142.0 84.5 3.3 54.2 17.6 22.8 73.5 28.1 Average relative standa 4 3 9 8 10 10 5 6 See footnotes below Table 1.