HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN JANUARY 1999 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,804,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 4 (+/-7) percent above the revised December rate of 1,738,000 and 18 (+/-7) percent above the revised January 1998 rate of 1,527,000. Single-family housing starts in January 1999 were at a rate of 1,394,000; this is 1 (+/-5) percent above the December figure of 1,378,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 351,000. The January rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 59,000. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in January was 1,777,000; this is 3 (+/-1) percent above the revised December rate of 1,729,000 and 14 (+/-2) percent above the January 1998 estimate of 1,553,000. Single-family authorizations in January 1999 were at a rate of 1,267,000; this is 3 (+/-1) percent below the December figure of 1,306,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 429,000 in January; this is 24 percent above the December estimate of 346,000. The January rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 81,000. MOBILE HOME SHIPMENTS Statistics on mobile home shipments, which lag by 1 month, appear in the Current Construction Reports, series C20. In December, manufacturers' shipments of mobile homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 382,000; this is 2 percent below the revised November figure of 389,000. The revised December 1997 rate was 354,000. Before seasonal adjustment, total shipments in December 1998 were 27,300. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Tuesday, March 16, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts, 3 months for building permit authorizations, and 2 months for mobile home shipments. Except for those on mobile home shipments, the statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The January 1999 Current Construction Reports, C20/99-1, will include explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Statistics on mobile home shipments are compiled from manufacturers' reports to the National Conference of States on Building Codes and Standards (NCSBCS). Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone (301)457-1321. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1996(r)- January 1,467 1,143 22 302 95 337 639 396 February 1,491 1,158 33 300 132 287 647 425 March 1,424 1,147 25 252 135 330 645 314 April 1,516 1,211 56 249 141 323 651 401 May 1,504 1,156 51 297 129 330 695 350 June 1,467 1,192 47 228 134 296 668 369 July 1,472 1,151 47 274 124 348 659 341 August 1,557 1,252 36 269 135 350 684 388 September 1,475 1,148 45 282 141 312 679 343 October 1,392 1,113 52 227 132 286 602 372 November 1,489 1,121 67 301 127 339 674 349 December 1,370 1,060 45 265 146 295 657 272 1997(r)- January 1,373 1,122 42 209 167 248 612 346 February 1,532 1,214 42 276 139 348 670 375 March 1,471 1,137 43 291 148 309 653 361 April 1,487 1,124 43 320 139 291 705 352 May 1,429 1,111 35 283 121 307 632 369 June 1,502 1,124 37 341 120 314 703 365 July 1,437 1,129 39 269 143 295 661 338 August 1,399 1,085 40 274 127 284 646 342 September 1,534 1,204 48 282 145 310 712 367 October 1,519 1,136 61 322 106 333 701 379 November 1,502 1,137 43 322 186 272 645 399 December 1,525 1,126 62 337 128 326 681 390 1998(r)- January 1,527 1,227 49 251 158 330 663 376 February 1,644 1,283 68 293 209 367 721 347 March 1,583 1,234 44 305 140 320 728 395 April 1,542 1,235 43 264 127 345 688 382 May 1,541 1,221 50 270 151 299 708 383 June 1,626 1,274 45 307 139 315 756 416 July 1,719 1,306 41 372 154 314 818 433 August 1,615 1,264 50 301 142 316 770 387 September 1,576 1,251 27 298 135 316 717 408 October 1,698 1,298 40 360 155 350 835 358 November 1,654 1,375 30 249 153 324 759 418 December 1,738 1,378 28 332 157 423 728 430 1999 - January (p) 1,804 1,394 59 351 152 316 890 446 Average RSE (%) 3 2 13 9 7 7 4 3 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1997 1,474.0 1,133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 1998 (r) 1,615.7 1,270.8 15.7 26.8 302.4 148.5 330.9 741.5 394.8 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1998 - January 91.2 72.3 0.8 1.5 16.5 8.0 14.4 42.9 25.9 February 101.1 78.9 0.8 3.2 18.1 9.4 17.3 51.2 23.2 March 132.6 107.2 1.6 1.9 21.9 11.0 23.3 63.2 35.0 April 144.9 117.3 1.8 2.2 23.7 11.9 33.2 65.4 34.4 May 143.3 114.4 1.9 2.6 24.3 14.1 29.7 64.5 34.9 June 159.6 128.7 1.7 3.0 26.1 14.0 33.7 70.4 41.5 July 156.0 120.5 1.5 2.3 31.7 15.3 31.2 70.6 38.8 August 147.5 115.1 1.4 3.2 27.8 12.9 31.3 67.7 35.5 September 141.5 112.4 1.0 1.3 26.9 13.1 29.8 62.3 36.3 October 155.5 113.5 1.2 3.0 37.7 16.0 36.4 71.9 31.3 November (r) 124.2 101.3 0.9 1.9 20.1 12.0 25.1 58.8 28.3 December (r) 118.4 89.3 1.0 0.8 27.4 10.8 25.4 52.5 29.7 1999 - January (p) 107.1 82.3 0.9 1.9 21.9 8.2 12.8 56.6 29.5 Average RSE (%) 3 2 15 20 9 7 7 4 3 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 - January 1,553 1,142 70 341 174 336 667 376 February 1,635 1,176 74 385 169 356 721 389 March 1,569 1,136 71 362 146 311 733 379 April 1,517 1,145 55 317 133 305 664 415 May 1,543 1,152 66 325 133 318 715 377 June 1,517 1,128 74 315 151 307 675 384 July 1,581 1,173 74 334 154 310 724 393 August 1,618 1,180 72 366 144 302 784 388 September 1,544 1,164 69 311 154 309 710 371 October 1,690 1,198 65 427 169 335 789 397 November 1,656 1,238 62 356 171 332 728 425 December (r) 1,729 1,306 77 346 172 413 743 401 1999 - January (p) 1,777 1,267 81 429 170 320 838 449 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 1 2 2 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 1,441.1 1,062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 1998 (r) 1,604.3 1,183.7 32.1 36.4 352.1 157.2 323.2 727.1 396.8 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 4 (Z) 1 1 1 1 1998 - January 93.5 68.3 2.0 2.0 21.1 9.6 14.6 45.5 23.8 February 105.6 76.6 2.2 2.6 24.3 8.7 18.5 51.7 26.7 March 138.0 103.8 2.8 3.4 28.0 11.7 25.7 67.5 33.1 April 144.7 112.9 2.7 2.7 26.4 12.9 30.8 62.4 38.7 May 137.5 105.9 2.5 3.1 26.0 12.7 30.7 62.2 31.8 June 151.8 115.2 3.1 4.4 29.0 16.1 31.4 64.3 40.0 July 146.8 109.9 3.1 3.5 30.3 14.9 29.6 65.3 37.0 August 142.2 103.3 3.0 3.1 32.7 13.2 28.7 66.3 34.0 September 140.2 102.1 2.9 3.3 31.9 14.4 29.8 62.1 33.9 October 147.6 103.4 2.8 3.5 37.9 15.5 32.6 65.3 34.1 November 118.2 85.6 2.4 2.3 28.0 12.8 24.7 51.9 28.8 December (r) 125.3 89.1 2.8 2.8 30.5 12.2 26.9 56.1 30.1 1999 - January (p) 105.1 73.2 2.2 2.3 27.3 9.1 13.2 55.8 27.0 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 3 1 2 2 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 -January 114.1 65.4 5.5 43.2 12.4 15.0 63.0 23.7 November (r) 127.2 70.0 3.1 54.1 13.6 17.9 69.7 26.0 December (r) 136.3 77.6 4.7 54.1 13.9 18.9 76.7 26.8 1999 -January (p) 134.5 75.7 2.8 55.9 16.2 18.4 75.4 24.5 Average RSE (%) 4 3 9 8 10 10 5 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).