HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN DECEMBER 1998 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,720,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 3 (+/-6) percent above the revised November rate of 1,662,000 and 12 (+/-7) percent above the December 1997 rate of 1,540,000. Single-family housing starts in December 1998 were at a rate of 1,357,000; this is 1 (+/-5) percent below the November figure of 1,367,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 323,000. The December rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 40,000. The preliminary estimate of privately owned housing units started in 1998 was 1,615,600. This is 10 (+/-1) percent above the 1997 figure of 1,474,000. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in December was 1,723,000; this is 4 (+/-1) percent above the revised November rate of 1,656,000 and 17 (+/-2) percent above the December 1997 estimate of 1,467,000. Single-family authorizations in December 1998 were at a rate of 1,290,000; this is 4 (+/-1) percent above the November figure of 1,238,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 352,000 in December. The December rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 81,000. The preliminary estimate of housing units authorized by building permits in 1998 was 1,603,000. This is 11 (+/-1) percent above the 1997 figure of 1,441,100. MOBILE HOME SHIPMENTS Statistics on mobile home shipments, which lag by 1 month, appear in the Current Construction Reports, series C20. In November, manufacturers' shipments of mobile homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 390,000; this is 4 percent above the October figure of 375,000. The November 1997 rate was 352,000. Before seasonal adjustment, total shipments in November 1998 were 30,100. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Wednesday, February 17, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 4 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts, 3 months for building permit authorizations, and 2 months for mobile home shipments. Except for those on mobile home shipments, the statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The April 1998 Current Construction Reports, C20/98-4, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Statistics on mobile home shipments are compiled from manufacturers' reports to the National Conference of States on Building Codes and Standards (NCSBCS). Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone (301)457-4703. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1997 - December 1,540 1,130 62 348 131 337 677 395 1998 - January 1,545 1,225 49 271 159 342 665 379 February 1,616 1,263 63 290 200 367 710 339 March 1,585 1,239 45 301 146 319 725 395 April 1,546 1,237 44 265 128 346 690 382 May 1,538 1,224 51 263 152 299 705 382 June 1,620 1,269 45 306 136 311 758 415 July 1,704 1,300 42 362 152 318 802 432 August 1,621 1,261 55 305 141 314 776 390 September 1,569 1,250 27 292 137 317 710 405 October (r) 1,693 1,291 40 362 162 347 826 358 November (r) 1,662 1,367 33 262 152 332 763 415 December (p) 1,720 1,357 40 323 158 414 720 428 Average RSE (%) 3 2 13 9 7 7 4 3 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1997 1,474.0 1,133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 1998 (p) 1,615.6 1,269.6 15.8 27.8 302.4 148.6 331.4 740.9 394.7 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1997 First 11 months 1,368.0 1,059.8 16.4 24.1 267.7 128.0 283.9 619.7 336.3 1998 First 11 months 1,497.5 1,180.3 14.9 25.7 276.6 138.1 306.5 688.5 364.3 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 12 3 3 2 1 1 1997 December 106.0 73.9 1.8 2.3 28.1 8.8 19.6 50.6 27.0 1998 - January 91.2 72.3 0.8 1.5 16.5 8.0 14.4 42.9 25.9 February 101.1 78.9 0.8 3.2 18.1 9.4 17.3 51.2 23.2 March 132.6 107.2 1.6 1.9 21.9 11.0 23.3 63.2 35.0 April 144.9 117.3 1.8 2.2 23.7 11.9 33.2 65.4 34.4 May 143.3 114.4 1.9 2.6 24.3 14.1 29.7 64.5 34.9 June 159.6 128.7 1.7 3.0 26.1 14.0 33.7 70.4 41.5 July 156.0 120.5 1.5 2.3 31.7 15.3 31.2 70.6 38.8 August 147.5 115.1 1.4 3.2 27.8 12.9 31.3 67.7 35.5 September 141.5 112.4 1.0 1.3 26.9 13.1 29.8 62.3 36.3 October (r) 155.5 113.5 1.2 3.0 37.7 16.0 36.4 71.9 31.3 November (r) 124.3 100.9 0.9 2.0 20.6 12.2 25.4 58.6 28.1 December (p) 118.2 88.6 1.0 1.7 26.9 10.6 25.6 52.1 29.8 Average RSE (%) 3 2 15 20 9 7 7 4 3 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 - December 1,467 1,094 82 291 153 321 612 381 1998 - January 1,553 1,142 70 341 174 336 667 376 February 1,635 1,176 74 385 169 356 721 389 March 1,569 1,136 71 362 146 311 733 379 April 1,517 1,145 55 317 133 305 664 415 May 1,543 1,152 66 325 133 318 715 377 June 1,517 1,128 74 315 151 307 675 384 July 1,581 1,173 74 334 154 310 724 393 August 1,618 1,180 72 366 144 302 784 388 September 1,544 1,164 69 311 154 309 710 371 October 1,690 1,198 65 427 169 335 789 397 November (r) 1,656 1,238 62 356 171 332 728 425 December (p) 1,723 1,290 81 352 174 404 745 400 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 1 2 2 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 1,441.1 1,062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 1998 (p) 1,603.0 1,181.5 32.2 36.5 352.8 156.6 322.9 727.6 395.8 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 4 (Z) 1 1 1 1 1997 First 11 month 1,334.7 988.5 32.1 30.7 283.5 131.2 279.6 589.4 334.6 1998 First 11 month 1,476.8 1,092.9 29.2 33.4 321.2 144.4 296.4 671.9 364.1 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 4 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1997 - December 106.4 73.9 2.8 2.9 26.8 10.7 20.3 46.5 28.9 1998 - January 93.5 68.3 2.0 2.0 21.1 9.6 14.6 45.5 23.8 February 105.6 76.6 2.2 2.6 24.3 8.7 18.5 51.7 26.7 March 138.0 103.8 2.8 3.4 28.0 11.7 25.7 67.5 33.1 April 144.7 112.9 2.7 2.7 26.4 12.9 30.8 62.4 38.7 May 137.5 105.9 2.5 3.1 26.0 12.7 30.7 62.2 31.8 June 151.8 115.2 3.1 4.4 29.0 16.1 31.4 64.3 40.0 July 146.8 109.9 3.1 3.5 30.3 14.9 29.6 65.3 37.0 August 142.2 103.3 3.0 3.1 32.7 13.2 28.7 66.3 34.0 September 140.2 102.1 2.9 3.3 31.9 14.4 29.8 62.1 33.9 October 147.6 103.4 2.8 3.5 37.9 15.5 32.6 65.3 34.1 November (r) 118.2 85.6 2.4 2.3 28.0 12.8 24.7 51.9 28.8 December (p) 124.9 87.9 3.0 2.9 31.1 12.4 26.3 56.2 30.0 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 3 1 2 2 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 -December 111.1 63.6 3.7 43.8 11.3 14.1 58.7 26.9 1998 -October (r) 129.7 76.6 3.3 49.9 13.0 19.0 72.8 24.9 November (r) 128.2 70.7 3.1 54.4 13.7 18.0 70.2 26.3 December (p) 135.4 76.5 4.0 54.8 14.3 17.7 76.6 26.8 Average RSE (%) 4 3 9 8 10 10 5 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).