HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN OCTOBER 1998 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,695,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 7 (+/-8) percent above the revised September rate of 1,579,000 and 11 (+/-8) percent above the October 1997 rate of 1,529,000. Single-family housing starts in October 1998 were at a rate of 1,286,000; this is 3 (+/-7) percent above the September figure of 1,248,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 371,000. The October rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 38,000. During the first 10 months of this year, 1,375,100 housing units were started compared with 1,255,500 units for the same period in 1997. This is an increase of 10 (+/-2) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in October was 1,697,000; this is 10 (+/-1) percent above the revised September rate of 1,544,000 and 13 (+/-1) percent above the October 1997 estimate of 1,502,000. Single-family authorizations in October 1998 were at a rate of 1,200,000; this is 3 (+/-1) percent above the September figure of 1,164,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 434,000 in October; this is 40 percent above the September figure of 311,000. The October rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 63,000. During the first 10 months of this year, 1,357,500 housing units were authorized by building permits compared with 1,234,400 units for the same period in 1997. This is an increase of 10 (+/-1) percent. MOBILE HOME SHIPMENTS Statistics on mobile home shipments, which lag by 1 month, appear in the Current Construction Reports, series C20. In September, manufacturers' shipments of mobile homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 369,000, virtually the same as the August figure of 368,000. The September 1997 rate was 351,000. Before seasonal adjustment, total shipments in September 1998 were 33,100. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Wednesday, December 16, 1998, at 8:30 A.M. EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 4 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts, 3 months for building permit authorizations, and 2 months for mobile home shipments. Except for those on mobile home shipments, the statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The April 1998 Current Construction Reports, C20/98-4, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Statistics on mobile home shipments are compiled from manufacturers' reports to the National Conference of States on Building Codes and Standards (NCSBCS). Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1997 - October 1,529 1,124 64 341 113 328 714 374 November 1,523 1,167 40 316 182 272 661 408 December 1,540 1,130 62 348 131 337 677 395 1998 -January 1,545 1,225 49 271 159 342 665 379 February 1,616 1,263 63 290 200 367 710 339 March 1,585 1,239 45 301 146 319 725 395 April 1,546 1,237 44 265 128 346 690 382 May 1,538 1,224 51 263 152 299 705 382 June 1,620 1,269 45 306 136 311 758 415 July 1,704 1,300 42 362 152 318 802 432 August (r) 1,621 1,261 55 305 141 314 776 390 September (r) 1,579 1,248 27 304 139 318 716 406 October (p) 1,695 1,286 38 371 162 352 820 361 Average RSE (%) 3 2 16 11 13 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1996 1,476.8 1,160.9 16.4 28.8 270.8 132.1 321.5 661.9 361.4 1997 1,474.0 1,133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 Average RSE (%) 1 1 6 9 2 1 2 2 1 1997 First 10 months 1,255.5 976.1 14.8 21.8 242.8 113.3 262.7 570.3 309.2 1998 First 10 months 1,375.1 1,081.0 13.8 23.8 256.4 126.2 281.7 629.5 337.7 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 13 3 3 2 2 1 1997 -October 139.0 99.2 2.0 4.4 33.4 11.2 34.0 60.9 33.0 November 112.4 83.7 1.6 2.2 25.0 14.7 21.2 49.4 27.1 December 106.0 73.9 1.8 2.3 28.1 8.8 19.6 50.6 27.0 1998 -January 91.2 72.3 0.8 1.5 16.5 8.0 14.4 42.9 25.9 February 101.1 78.9 0.8 3.2 18.1 9.4 17.3 51.2 23.2 March 132.6 107.2 1.6 1.9 21.9 11.0 23.3 63.2 35.0 April 144.9 117.3 1.8 2.2 23.7 11.9 33.2 65.4 34.4 May 143.3 114.4 1.9 2.6 24.3 14.1 29.7 64.5 34.9 June 159.6 128.7 1.7 3.0 26.1 14.0 33.7 70.4 41.5 July 156.0 120.5 1.5 2.3 31.7 15.3 31.2 70.6 38.8 August (r) 147.5 115.1 1.4 3.2 27.8 12.9 31.3 67.7 35.5 September (r) 142.9 112.6 1.0 1.2 28.0 13.4 30.1 62.6 36.7 October (p) 156.1 114.1 1.1 2.7 38.2 16.1 37.4 70.8 31.8 Average RSE (%) 3 2 12 27 11 13 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 -October 1,502 1,106 74 322 134 295 682 391 November 1,475 1,102 58 315 144 299 651 381 December 1,467 1,094 82 291 153 321 612 381 1998 -January 1,553 1,142 70 341 174 336 667 376 February 1,635 1,176 74 385 169 356 721 389 March 1,569 1,136 71 362 146 311 733 379 April 1,517 1,145 55 317 133 305 664 415 May 1,543 1,152 66 325 133 318 715 377 June 1,517 1,128 74 315 151 307 675 384 July 1,581 1,173 74 334 154 310 724 393 August 1,618 1,180 72 366 144 302 784 388 September (r) 1,544 1,164 69 311 154 309 710 371 October (p) 1,697 1,200 63 434 171 339 788 399 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 2 2 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1996 1,425.6 1,069.5 33.6 32.2 290.3 136.9 317.8 623.4 347.4 1997 1,441.1 1,062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 Average RSE (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 1997 First 10 month 1,234.4 916.0 29.8 28.5 260.1 120.6 258.3 545.3 310.2 1998 First 10 month 1,357.5 1,006.6 26.8 30.9 293.2 131.6 272.6 618.1 335.2 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 3 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1997 -October 135.5 97.5 3.7 3.9 30.4 12.5 29.5 58.0 35.5 November 100.4 72.5 2.3 2.2 23.3 10.6 21.3 44.0 24.5 December 106.4 73.9 2.8 2.9 26.8 10.7 20.3 46.5 28.9 1998 -January 93.5 68.3 2.0 2.0 21.1 9.6 14.6 45.5 23.8 February 105.6 76.6 2.2 2.6 24.3 8.7 18.5 51.7 26.7 March 138.0 103.8 2.8 3.4 28.0 11.7 25.7 67.5 33.1 April 144.7 112.9 2.7 2.7 26.4 12.9 30.8 62.4 38.7 May 137.5 105.9 2.5 3.1 26.0 12.7 30.7 62.2 31.8 June 151.8 115.2 3.1 4.4 29.0 16.1 31.4 64.3 40.0 July 146.8 109.9 3.1 3.5 30.3 14.9 29.6 65.3 37.0 August 142.2 103.3 3.0 3.1 32.7 13.2 28.7 66.3 34.0 September (r) 140.2 102.1 2.9 3.3 31.9 14.4 29.8 62.1 33.9 October (p) 148.0 103.4 2.7 3.4 38.5 15.7 32.9 65.1 34.3 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 6 2 2 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 -October 122.0 66.5 4.9 50.6 14.3 15.2 65.6 26.9 1998 -August (r) 128.4 78.1 3.5 46.8 12.1 20.2 71.4 24.6 September (r) 132.3 77.9 3.8 50.6 13.4 21.5 75.3 22.1 October (p) 130.4 76.4 4.0 50.1 12.9 18.8 73.4 25.2 Average RSE (%) 3 3 14 7 11 9 5 5 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).