HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN AUGUST 1998 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,613,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 5 (+/-6) percent below the revised July rate of 1,706,000, but 17 (+/-6) percent above the August 1997 rate of 1,383,000. Single-family housing starts in August 1998 were at a rate of 1,245,000; this is 4 (+/-5) percent below the July figure of 1,299,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 313,000. The August rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 55,000. During the first 8 months of this year, 1,074,800 housing units were started compared with 977,300 units for the same period in 1997. This is an increase of 10 (+/-2) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in August was 1,616,000; this is 2 (+/-1) percent above the revised July rate of 1,581,000 and 11 (+/-1) percent above the August 1997 figure of 1,445,000. Single-family authorizations in August 1998 were at a rate of 1,173,000; this is the same (+/-1 percent) as the July figure. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 370,000 in August; this is 11 percent above the July figure of 334,000. The August rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 73,000. During the first 8 months of this year, 1,065,200 housing units were authorized by building permits compared with 964,500 units for the same period in 1997. This is an increase of 10 (+/-1) percent. MOBILE HOME SHIPMENTS Statistics on mobile home shipments, which lag by 1 month, appear in the Current Construction Reports, series C20. In July, manufacturers' shipments of mobile homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 380,000; this is 5 percent below the June figure of 362,000. The July 1997 rate was 356,000. Before seasonal adjustment, total shipments in July 1998 were 30,900. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Wednesday, October 21, 1998, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 4 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts, 3 months for building permit authorizations, and 2 months for mobile home shipments. Except for those on mobile home shipments, the statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The April 1998 Current Construction Reports, C20/98-4, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Statistics on mobile home shipments are compiled from manufacturers' reports to the National Conference of States on Building Codes and Standards (NCSBCS). Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1997 -August 1,383 1,076 43 264 126 277 645 335 September 1,501 1,174 45 282 139 304 696 362 October 1,529 1,124 64 341 113 328 714 374 November 1,523 1,167 40 316 182 272 661 408 December 1,540 1,130 62 348 131 337 677 395 1998 -January 1,545 1,225 49 271 159 342 665 379 February 1,616 1,263 63 290 200 367 710 339 March 1,585 1,239 45 301 146 319 725 395 April 1,546 1,237 44 265 128 346 690 382 May 1,538 1,224 51 263 152 299 705 382 June (r) 1,620 1,269 45 306 136 311 758 415 July (r) 1,706 1,299 41 366 150 319 806 431 August (p) 1,613 1,245 55 313 139 309 771 394 Average RSE (%) 3 2 16 11 13 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1996 1,476.8 1,160.9 16.4 28.8 270.8 132.1 321.5 661.9 361.4 1997 1,474.0 1,133.7 18.1 26.4 295.8 136.8 303.6 670.3 363.3 Average RSE (%) 1 1 6 9 2 1 2 2 1 1997 First 8 months 977.3 768.6 10.6 15.4 182.7 88.4 199.0 446.7 243.1 1998 First 8 months 1,074.8 851.7 12.1 19.5 191.5 96.2 213.8 495.4 269.3 Average RSE (%) 1 1 8 12 4 4 3 2 1 1997 -August 126.5 98.8 1.5 2.0 24.2 11.6 28.1 55.5 31.3 September 139.2 108.3 2.2 2.0 26.7 13.7 29.7 62.6 33.1 October 139.0 99.2 2.0 4.4 33.4 11.2 34.0 60.9 33.0 November 112.4 83.7 1.6 2.2 25.0 14.7 21.2 49.4 27.1 December 106.0 73.9 1.8 2.3 28.1 8.8 19.6 50.6 27.0 1998 -January 91.2 72.3 0.8 1.5 16.5 8.0 14.4 42.9 25.9 February 101.1 78.9 0.8 3.2 18.1 9.4 17.3 51.2 23.2 March 132.6 107.2 1.6 1.9 21.9 11.0 23.3 63.2 35.0 April 144.9 117.3 1.8 2.2 23.7 11.9 33.2 65.4 34.4 May 143.3 114.4 1.9 2.6 24.3 14.1 29.7 64.5 34.9 June (r) 159.6 128.7 1.7 3.0 26.1 14.0 33.7 70.4 41.5 July (r) 155.6 120.0 1.7 2.0 31.9 15.0 31.3 70.6 38.7 August (p) 146.5 112.9 1.7 3.0 28.8 12.8 30.9 67.1 35.7 Average RSE (%) 3 2 12 27 11 13 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 -August 1,445 1,059 64 322 141 304 630 370 September 1,475 1,084 67 324 136 299 646 394 October 1,502 1,106 74 322 134 295 682 391 November 1,475 1,102 58 315 144 299 651 381 December 1,467 1,094 82 291 153 321 612 381 1998 -January 1,553 1,142 70 341 174 336 667 376 February 1,635 1,176 74 385 169 356 721 389 March 1,569 1,136 71 362 146 311 733 379 April 1,517 1,145 55 317 133 305 664 415 May 1,543 1,152 66 325 133 318 715 377 June 1,517 1,128 74 315 151 307 675 384 July (r) 1,581 1,173 74 334 154 310 724 393 August (p) 1,616 1,173 73 370 144 301 782 389 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 2 2 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1996 1,425.6 1,069.5 33.6 32.2 290.3 136.9 317.8 623.4 347.4 1997 1,441.1 1,062.4 34.9 33.6 310.3 141.9 299.8 635.9 363.5 Average RSE (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 1997 First 8 months 964.5 722.9 23.1 21.4 197.1 95.8 200.0 429.9 238.9 1998 First 8 months 1,065.2 799.0 21.4 24.5 220.4 100.3 210.2 488.7 266.1 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 7 2 3 2 1 1 1997 -August 126.0 91.8 2.5 2.9 28.7 12.9 28.3 53.4 31.4 September 134.4 95.6 3.0 3.2 32.7 12.4 28.8 57.4 35.7 October 135.5 97.5 3.7 3.9 30.4 12.5 29.5 58.0 35.5 November 100.4 72.5 2.3 2.2 23.3 10.6 21.3 44.0 24.5 December 106.4 73.9 2.8 2.9 26.8 10.7 20.3 46.5 28.9 1998 -January 93.5 68.3 2.0 2.0 21.1 9.6 14.6 45.5 23.8 February 105.6 76.6 2.2 2.6 24.3 8.7 18.5 51.7 26.7 March 138.0 103.8 2.8 3.4 28.0 11.7 25.7 67.5 33.1 April 144.7 112.9 2.7 2.7 26.4 12.9 30.8 62.4 38.7 May 137.5 105.9 2.5 3.1 26.0 12.7 30.7 62.2 31.8 June 151.8 115.2 3.1 4.4 29.0 16.1 31.4 64.3 40.0 July (r) 146.8 109.9 3.1 3.5 30.3 14.9 29.6 65.3 37.0 August (p) 141.8 102.3 3.1 3.1 33.2 12.8 28.4 66.2 33.9 Average RSE (%) 1 1 4 6 2 2 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1997 -August 120.0 67.9 3.6 48.5 15.9 15.0 65.5 23.6 1998 -June (r) 135.3 78.7 4.7 51.9 12.5 22.0 72.3 28.4 July (r) 134.2 79.4 5.7 49.1 12.4 22.3 71.9 27.6 August (p) 130.0 75.9 4.8 49.4 12.2 20.5 72.1 25.3 Average RSE (%) 3 3 14 7 11 9 5 5 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).