For Release 8:30 A.M. EST, Friday, November 17, 2000 CB00-194 HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN OCTOBER 2000 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,532,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is virtually unchanged (+/-6 percent) from the revised September rate of 1,530,000, but is 6 (+/-7) percent below the October 1999 rate of 1,636,000. Single-family housing starts in October 2000 were at a rate of 1,227,000; this is virtually unchanged (+/-6 percent) from the September figure of 1,229,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 266,000. The October rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 39,000. During the first 10 months of this year, 1,372,900 housing units were started compared with 1,422,900 units for the same period in 1999. This is a decrease of 4 (+/-2) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in October was 1,537,000. This is 1 (+/-1) percent above the revised September rate of 1,518,000, but is 6 (+/-1) percent below the October 1999 estimate of 1,636,000. Single-family authorizations in October 2000 were at a rate of 1,178,000; this is 2 (+/-1) percent above the September figure of 1,157,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 293,000 in October. The October rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 66,000. During the first 10 months of this year, 1,347,700 housing units were authorized compared with 1,417,000 units for the same period in 1999. This is a decrease of 5 (+/-1) percent. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Wednesday, December 20, 2000, at 8:30 A.M. EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to- month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts and 3 months for building permit authorizations. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The April 2000 Current Construction Reports, C20/00-4, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1999 - October 1,636 1,343 26 267 129 371 764 372 November 1,663 1,344 25 294 150 389 709 415 December 1,769 1,441 30 298 159 407 807 396 2000 - January 1,744 1,361 32 351 153 381 821 389 February 1,822 1,324 40 458 189 471 748 414 March 1,630 1,327 16 287 155 330 772 373 April 1,652 1,310 30 312 140 370 710 432 May 1,591 1,258 26 307 148 345 737 361 June 1,571 1,227 39 305 144 301 762 364 July 1,527 1,201 43 283 144 318 674 391 August (r) 1,519 1,229 41 249 145 299 703 372 September (r) 1,530 1,229 39 262 160 300 668 402 October (p) 1,532 1,227 39 266 155 320 719 338 Average RSE (%) 3 3 9 9 7 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1998 1,616.9 1,271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 1999 1,666.5 1,334.9 13.4 18.5 299.7 153.7 356.4 760.3 396.1 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1999 First 10 months 1,422.9 1,142.5 11.6 16.2 252.6 130.6 302.6 650.6 339.0 2000 First 10 months 1,372.9 1,090.4 11.1 18.8 252.6 128.3 288.3 626.3 330.0 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 13 3 3 2 2 1 1999 - October 145.4 115.8 1.4 1.1 27.0 12.3 37.5 64.9 30.7 November 127.9 102.1 0.9 1.2 23.7 12.5 30.0 54.5 30.9 December 115.7 90.2 0.9 1.2 23.4 10.6 23.8 55.1 26.1 2000 - January 105.2 80.5 1.0 0.7 23.0 8.1 15.9 55.4 25.8 February 122.1 90.2 0.9 1.7 29.4 9.9 22.9 58.1 31.2 March 137.2 115.3 0.7 0.5 20.7 11.9 25.4 68.4 31.5 April 151.8 121.5 1.3 1.4 27.5 12.2 35.8 65.6 38.1 May 155.3 125.7 1.4 0.7 27.5 14.2 35.6 70.2 35.3 June 148.5 118.7 1.0 3.2 25.6 14.2 31.4 68.2 34.6 July 138.0 108.5 1.0 3.3 25.2 14.6 30.8 57.6 34.9 August (r) 142.0 114.8 1.0 2.9 23.2 13.9 29.8 62.6 35.7 September (r) 131.7 104.9 1.1 2.3 23.4 14.5 27.8 55.5 33.9 October (p) 141.1 110.2 1.8 2.0 27.0 14.7 32.9 64.6 29.0 Average RSE (%) 3 3 11 13 9 7 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - October 1,636 1,204 62 370 145 342 765 384 November 1,678 1,238 68 372 171 372 742 393 December 1,683 1,266 68 349 174 347 751 411 2000 - January 1,762 1,317 65 380 195 378 751 438 February 1,661 1,223 67 371 162 360 732 407 March 1,597 1,238 68 291 164 364 679 390 April 1,559 1,164 58 337 162 342 664 391 May 1,511 1,150 62 299 153 310 683 365 June 1,528 1,127 61 340 150 311 675 392 July 1,511 1,117 55 339 156 316 666 373 August 1,486 1,140 66 280 140 300 644 402 September (r) 1,518 1,157 65 296 159 311 669 379 October (p) 1,537 1,178 66 293 148 330 678 381 Average RSE (%) 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 1,612.3 1,187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 1999 1,663.5 1,246.7 32.5 33.3 351.1 164.9 345.4 748.9 404.3 Average RSE (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 1999 First 10 months 1,417.0 1,071.6 27.5 27.4 290.6 138.9 293.9 637.9 346.2 2000 First 10 months 1,347.7 1,022.0 25.5 28.2 272.0 135.7 281.3 593.7 337.1 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 3 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1999 - October 137.6 97.6 2.8 3.0 34.2 12.8 31.3 62.3 31.2 November 125.6 90.3 2.6 3.1 29.6 13.6 29.4 55.0 27.6 December 120.9 84.8 2.4 2.8 30.9 12.3 22.1 55.9 30.6 2000 - January 104.8 76.7 1.8 1.8 24.6 10.5 16.4 50.4 27.6 February 115.1 85.9 2.5 2.2 24.5 9.1 20.4 56.5 29.1 March 147.0 116.3 2.7 3.1 24.8 14.1 32.2 64.8 36.0 April 135.1 104.1 2.4 2.5 26.0 14.2 31.6 56.3 33.1 May 145.3 116.0 2.5 3.2 23.6 15.1 32.3 63.1 34.8 June 151.9 112.4 3.1 3.0 33.4 15.7 30.2 65.1 40.9 July 128.3 96.4 2.2 2.2 27.5 13.9 27.7 54.5 32.2 August 141.1 108.9 2.9 3.3 26.0 13.8 30.2 59.1 38.0 September (r) 129.1 94.9 2.3 3.3 28.6 13.6 27.3 56.3 32.0 October (p) 133.8 100.5 3.1 3.4 26.8 13.2 31.9 57.2 31.5 Average RSE (%) 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - October 133.5 80.4 3.3 49.8 14.6 16.0 75.9 27.0 2000 -August (r) 137.1 87.0 4.5 45.7 17.8 20.0 68.9 30.5 September (r) 138.0 84.7 4.6 48.7 16.7 20.9 72.9 27.5 October (p) 130.0 81.8 4.3 43.9 15.4 20.5 64.6 29.5 Average RSE (%) 3 4 8 5 13 8 4 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone(301)457-1321.