For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT, Tuesday, April 18, 2000 CB00-64 HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN MARCH 2000 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,604,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 11 (+/-6) percent below the revised February rate of 1,807,000 and 8 (+/-7) percent below the March 1999 rate of 1,737,000. Single-family housing starts in March 2000 were at a rate of 1,309,000; this is virtually unchanged (+/-6 percent) from the February figure of 1,307,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 272,000; this is 41 percent below the February estimate of 460,000. The March rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 23,000. During the first 3 months of this year, 361,000 housing units were started compared with 369,500 units for the same period in 1999. This is a decrease of 2 (+/-4) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in March was 1,579,000. This is 4 (+/-1) percent below the revised February rate of 1,653,000 and 5 (+/-1) percent below the March 1999 estimate of 1,654,000. Single-family authorizations in March 2000 were at a rate of 1,220,000; this is virtually unchanged (+/-1 percent) from the February figure of 1,223,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 296,000 in March; this is 18 percent below the February estimate of 362,000. The March rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 63,000. During the first 3 months of this year, 363,200 housing units were authorized compared with 373,700 units for the same period in 1999. This is a decrease of 3 (+/-1) percent. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Tuesday, May 16, 2000, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to- month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts and 3 months for building permit authorizations. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The January 2000 Current Construction Reports, C20/2000-1, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1999 - March 1737 1377 33 327 159 378 810 390 April 1561 1248 31 282 135 337 684 405 May 1649 1368 26 255 152 352 734 411 June 1562 1269 29 264 158 355 697 352 July 1704 1348 40 316 171 320 768 445 August 1657 1285 31 341 171 337 762 387 September 1628 1290 38 300 135 365 740 388 October 1636 1343 26 267 129 371 764 372 November 1663 1344 25 294 150 389 709 415 December 1769 1441 30 298 159 407 807 396 2000 - January (r) 1744 1361 32 351 153 381 821 389 February (r) 1807 1307 40 460 194 470 746 397 March (p) 1604 1309 23 272 159 320 746 379 Average RSE (%) 3 3 9 9 7 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1998 1616.9 1271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 1999 1666.5 1334.9 13.4 18.5 299.7 153.7 356.4 760.3 396.1 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1999 First 3 months 369.5 294.1 2.8 4.2 68.4 29.6 59.2 192.5 88.2 2000 First 3 months 361.0 283.0 3.2 2.9 72.0 30.5 63.6 179.0 88.0 Average RSE (%) 2 1 8 18 8 13 4 2 2 1999 - March 149.3 122.9 1.4 1.4 23.6 12.1 29.2 73.1 34.9 April 146.5 118.8 1.8 1.2 24.8 12.1 32.6 64.9 36.9 May 155.6 130.4 1.1 1.1 23.0 14.7 35.7 66.9 38.3 June 152.4 127.9 1.2 1.8 21.5 16.0 38.1 63.9 34.4 July 155.2 123.4 1.2 2.6 28.0 17.3 31.3 66.6 39.9 August 155.0 119.7 1.2 1.6 32.5 16.5 33.5 68.0 37.0 September 143.3 112.5 0.9 2.6 27.4 12.3 34.5 62.8 33.7 October 145.4 115.8 1.4 1.1 27.0 12.3 37.5 64.9 30.7 November 127.9 102.1 0.9 1.2 23.7 12.5 30.0 54.5 30.9 December 115.7 90.2 0.9 1.2 23.4 10.6 23.8 55.1 26.1 2000 - January (r) 105.2 80.5 1.0 0.7 23.0 8.1 15.9 55.4 25.8 February (r) 121.6 89.5 1.0 1.5 29.6 10.2 23.0 58.2 30.2 March (p) 134.2 112.9 1.3 0.6 19.3 12.1 24.6 65.3 32.1 Average RSE (%) 3 3 11 13 9 7 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - March 1654 1242 69 343 163 356 744 391 April 1572 1214 67 291 162 338 692 380 May 1591 1243 59 289 155 338 692 406 June 1641 1241 64 336 167 330 736 408 July 1641 1247 63 331 157 323 761 400 August 1619 1210 66 343 157 333 746 383 September 1506 1171 63 272 147 333 664 362 October 1594 1178 62 354 142 328 751 373 November 1612 1200 68 344 161 352 720 379 December 1622 1228 70 324 166 327 732 397 2000 - January 1772 1318 65 389 191 379 759 443 February (r) 1653 1223 68 362 159 354 729 411 March (p) 1579 1220 63 296 164 359 663 393 Average RSE (%) (Z) 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 1612.3 1187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 1999 1640.2 1231.8 32.0 34.4 342.0 161.5 337.0 745.5 396.2 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 3 (Z) 1 1 (Z) 1 1999 First 3 months 373.7 279.3 7.3 7.7 79.4 32.7 63.3 186.5 91.2 2000 First 3 months 363.2 276.4 7.0 6.8 73.1 33.5 68.1 168.9 92.7 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 4 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1999 - March 152.1 117.7 2.9 3.1 28.4 14.0 31.5 69.8 36.7 April 149.1 118.3 2.9 3.3 24.6 15.1 33.7 65.8 34.6 May 141.7 114.1 2.7 2.3 22.6 14.2 32.8 59.3 35.3 June 165.6 125.7 3.4 3.2 33.2 18.0 33.6 71.0 43.0 July 145.5 112.4 2.5 2.7 27.8 14.6 29.5 65.5 35.9 August 147.4 110.3 2.6 3.3 31.2 14.9 32.2 66.7 33.6 September 133.0 100.9 3.1 2.6 26.4 12.9 31.0 56.7 32.4 October 133.1 95.4 2.7 3.0 32.0 12.3 30.0 60.6 30.2 November 121.1 88.2 2.5 3.1 27.3 13.1 28.0 53.1 27.0 December 117.1 82.8 2.3 2.9 29.1 11.8 21.0 54.5 29.8 2000 - January 104.8 76.7 1.8 1.8 24.6 10.5 16.4 50.4 27.6 February (r) 115.1 85.9 2.5 2.2 24.5 9.1 20.4 56.5 29.1 March (p) 143.9 114.1 2.8 2.8 24.3 13.8 31.4 62.7 36.0 Average RSE (%) (Z) 1 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 -March 141.5 84.0 3.2 54.4 17.5 22.6 72.4 29.0 2000 -January (r) 137.3 79.3 3.0 55.0 17.3 16.3 75.8 27.9 February (r) 133.0 81.3 3.0 48.7 15.6 14.0 76.5 27.0 March (p) 147.7 91.1 4.0 52.5 16.5 21.7 78.2 31.4 Average RSE (%) 3 4 8 5 13 8 4 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone(301)457-1321.