For Release 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday, March 16, 2000 CB00-45 HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN FEBRUARY 2000 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,781,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 1 (+/-6) percent above the revised January rate of 1,758,000 and 2 (+/-7) percent above the February 1999 rate of 1,738,000. Single-family housing starts in February 2000 were at a rate of 1,310,000; this is 4 (+/-6) percent below the January figure of 1,363,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 435,000. The February rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 36,000. During the first 2 months of this year, 225,800 housing units were started compared with the 220,200 units for the same period in 1999. This is an increase of 3 (+/-6) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in February was 1,631,000. This is 8 (+/-1) percent below the revised January rate of 1,772,000 and 6 (+/-1) percent below the February 1999 estimate of 1,738,000. Single-family authorizations in February 2000 were at a rate of 1,217,000; this is 8 (+/-1) percent below the January figure of 1,318,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 345,000 in February; this is 11 percent below the January estimate of 389,000. The February rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 69,000. During the first 2 months of this year, 218,200 housing units were authorized compared with the 219,800 units for the same period in 1999. This is a decrease of 1(+/-1) percent. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Tuesday, April 18, 2000, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to- month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts and 3 months for building permit authorizations. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The January 2000 Current Construction Reports, C20/2000-1, will include explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1999 - February 1738 1379 25 334 194 358 843 343 March 1737 1377 33 327 159 378 810 390 April 1561 1248 31 282 135 337 684 405 May 1649 1368 26 255 152 352 734 411 June 1562 1269 29 264 158 355 697 352 July 1704 1348 40 316 171 320 768 445 August 1657 1285 31 341 171 337 762 387 September 1628 1290 38 300 135 365 740 388 October 1636 1343 26 267 129 371 764 372 November 1663 1344 25 294 150 389 709 415 December (r) 1769 1441 30 298 159 407 807 396 2000 - January (r) 1758 1363 34 361 155 375 835 393 February (p) 1781 1310 36 435 188 454 741 398 Average RSE (%) 3 3 9 9 7 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1998 1616.9 1271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 1999(r) 1666.5 1334.9 13.4 18.5 299.7 153.7 356.4 760.3 396.1 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1999 First 2 months 220.2 171.2 1.4 2.8 44.8 17.4 30.0 119.4 53.3 2000 First 2 months 225.8 169.5 1.8 2.2 52.3 18.4 37.5 113.8 56.1 Average RSE (%) 3 2 13 25 11 19 5 3 3 1999 - February 112.2 89.1 0.7 0.8 21.6 9.6 16.5 62.1 24.1 March 149.3 122.9 1.4 1.4 23.6 12.1 29.2 73.1 34.9 April 146.5 118.8 1.8 1.2 24.8 12.1 32.6 64.9 36.9 May 155.6 130.4 1.1 1.1 23.0 14.7 35.7 66.9 38.3 June 152.4 127.9 1.2 1.8 21.5 16.0 38.1 63.9 34.4 July 155.2 123.4 1.2 2.6 28.0 17.3 31.3 66.6 39.9 August 155.0 119.7 1.2 1.6 32.5 16.5 33.5 68.0 37.0 September 143.3 112.5 0.9 2.6 27.4 12.3 34.5 62.8 33.7 October 145.4 115.8 1.4 1.1 27.0 12.3 37.5 64.9 30.7 November 127.9 102.1 0.9 1.2 23.7 12.5 30.0 54.5 30.9 December (r) 115.7 90.2 0.9 1.2 23.4 10.6 23.8 55.1 26.1 2000 -January (r) 105.3 80.2 1.0 0.8 23.4 8.1 15.4 56.0 25.8 February (p) 120.4 89.2 0.8 1.5 28.9 10.2 22.1 57.8 30.3 Average RSE (%) 3 3 11 13 9 7 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - February 1738 1306 72 360 181 352 810 395 March 1654 1242 69 343 163 356 744 391 April 1572 1214 67 291 162 338 692 380 May 1591 1243 59 289 155 338 692 406 June 1641 1241 64 336 167 330 736 408 July 1641 1247 63 331 157 323 761 400 August 1619 1210 66 343 157 333 746 383 September 1506 1171 63 272 147 333 664 362 October 1594 1178 62 354 142 328 751 373 November 1612 1200 68 344 161 352 720 379 December 1622 1228 70 324 166 327 732 397 2000 - January (r) 1772 1318 65 389 191 379 759 443 February (p) 1631 1217 69 345 158 337 730 406 Average RSE (%) (Z) 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 1,612.3 1,187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 1999 1,640.2 1,231.8 32.0 34.4 342.0 161.5 337.0 745.5 396.2 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 3 (Z) 1 1 (Z) 1 1999 First 2 months 219.8 160.4 4.3 4.6 50.5 18.4 32.0 115.8 53.7 2000 First 2 months 218.2 162.0 4.3 4.0 47.9 19.5 35.6 106.9 56.2 Average RSE (%) 1 (Z) 3 6 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1999 - February 113.3 85.8 2.2 2.4 22.9 9.5 18.6 58.6 26.6 March 152.1 117.7 2.9 3.1 28.4 14.0 31.5 69.8 36.7 April 149.1 118.3 2.9 3.3 24.6 15.1 33.7 65.8 34.6 May 141.7 114.1 2.7 2.3 22.6 14.2 32.8 59.3 35.3 June 165.6 125.7 3.4 3.2 33.2 18.0 33.6 71.0 43.0 July 145.5 112.4 2.5 2.7 27.8 14.6 29.5 65.5 35.9 August 147.4 110.3 2.6 3.3 31.2 14.9 32.2 66.7 33.6 September 133.0 100.9 3.1 2.6 26.4 12.9 31.0 56.7 32.4 October 133.1 95.4 2.7 3.0 32.0 12.3 30.0 60.6 30.2 November 121.1 88.2 2.5 3.1 27.3 13.1 28.0 53.1 27.0 December 117.1 82.8 2.3 2.9 29.1 11.8 21.0 54.5 29.8 2000 - January (r) 104.8 76.7 1.8 1.8 24.6 10.5 16.4 50.4 27.6 February (p) 113.4 85.4 2.5 2.1 23.3 9.0 19.2 56.5 28.7 Average RSE (%) (Z) 1 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - February 137.2 78.5 3.3 55.4 16.2 20.5 73.3 27.2 December (r) 138.9 79.3 3.9 55.7 15.7 16.5 79.3 27.4 2000 - January (r) 135.6 77.8 4.0 53.8 17.3 16.2 74.5 27.7 February (p) 133.4 81.9 3.0 48.5 15.5 14.1 76.9 26.9 Average RSE (%) 3 4 8 5 13 8 4 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone(301)457-1321.