For Release 8:30 A.M. EST, Wednesday, February 16, 2000 CB00-29 HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN JANUARY 2000 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,775,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is 2 (+/-6) percent above the revised December 1999 rate of 1,748,000, but 2(+/-7) percent below the January 1999 rate of 1,804,000. Single-family housing starts in January 2000 were at a rate of 1,396,000, this is 2 (+/-6) percent below the December 1999 figure of 1,426,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 350,000. The January rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 29,000. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in January was 1,763,000. This is 9 (+/-1) percent above the revised December rate 1999 of 1,622,000, but 1 (+/-1) percent below the January 1999 estimate of 1,778,000. Single-family authorizations in January 2000 were at a rate of 1,303,000; this is 6 (+/-1) percent above the December 1999 figure of 1,228,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 398,000 in January. The January rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 62,000. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Thursday, March 16, 2000, at 8:30 A.M. EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to- month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts and 3 months for building permit authorizations. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The January 2000 Current Construction Reports, C20/2000-1, will include explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Seasonally adjusted data are revised annually using the latest available information. The seasonally adjusted estimates of housing starts shown in this release have been revised. Revised monthly data for 1997, 1998, and 1999 appear on the Internet and will be published in the January Current Construction Reports, C20/2000-1. Building permits estimates will be revised in the April press release. Effective with estimates for January 2000, we have redefined a housing unit. The new definition is: A housing unit is a house, an apartment, a group of rooms or a single room intended for occupancy as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which the occupants live separately from any other individuals in the building and which have a direct access from the outside of the building or through a common hall. The new definition eliminates the previous requirement that the residents must have the capability to eat separately from those in other units. Based on the old definition some senior housing projects were excluded from our multi- family housing statistics because they did not have their own eating facilities. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1997 (r) January 1355 1108 41 206 157 249 596 353 February 1486 1181 41 264 127 359 644 356 March 1457 1130 42 285 148 298 642 369 April 1492 1124 41 327 144 290 707 351 May 1442 1105 36 301 122 310 641 369 June 1494 1120 39 335 114 305 711 364 July 1437 1133 37 267 147 300 657 333 August 1390 1100 38 252 119 283 637 351 September 1546 1205 47 294 154 316 716 360 October 1520 1127 64 329 116 324 700 380 November 1510 1154 47 309 171 275 666 398 December 1566 1149 62 355 133 333 707 393 1998 (r) January 1525 1227 46 252 148 345 644 388 February 1584 1237 67 280 190 376 690 328 March 1567 1221 42 304 147 311 712 397 April 1540 1230 42 268 132 340 690 378 May 1536 1212 54 270 147 294 707 388 June 1641 1275 46 320 139 318 772 412 July 1698 1300 40 358 152 312 803 431 August 1614 1274 51 289 132 316 779 387 September 1582 1262 25 295 145 314 713 410 October 1715 1298 43 374 167 355 833 360 November 1660 1383 33 244 142 325 791 402 December 1792 1412 27 353 162 427 763 440 1999 (r) January 1804 1393 53 358 146 328 871 459 February 1738 1379 25 334 194 358 843 343 March 1737 1377 33 327 159 378 810 390 April 1561 1248 31 282 135 337 684 405 May 1649 1368 26 255 152 352 734 411 June 1562 1269 29 264 158 355 697 352 July 1704 1348 40 316 171 320 768 445 August 1657 1285 31 341 171 337 762 387 September 1628 1290 38 300 135 365 740 388 October 1636 1343 26 267 129 371 764 372 November 1663 1344 25 294 150 389 709 415 December 1748 1426 30 292 157 409 824 358 2000 - January (p) 1775 1396 29 350 150 412 829 384 Average RSE (%) 3 3 9 9 7 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1998 1616.9 1271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 1999(r) 1664.8 1333.4 13.4 18.5 299.5 153.6 356.6 761.4 393.2 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1999 - January 108.0 82.1 0.7 2.0 23.3 7.9 13.5 57.3 29.2 February 112.2 89.1 0.7 0.8 21.6 9.6 16.5 62.1 24.1 March 149.3 122.9 1.4 1.4 23.6 12.1 29.2 73.1 34.9 April 146.5 118.8 1.8 1.2 24.8 12.1 32.6 64.9 36.9 May 155.6 130.4 1.1 1.1 23.0 14.7 35.7 66.9 38.3 June 152.4 127.9 1.2 1.8 21.5 16.0 38.1 63.9 34.4 July 155.2 123.4 1.2 2.6 28.0 17.3 31.3 66.6 39.9 August 155.0 119.7 1.2 1.6 32.5 16.5 33.5 68.0 37.0 September 143.3 112.5 0.9 2.6 27.4 12.3 34.5 62.8 33.7 October 145.4 115.8 1.4 1.1 27.0 12.3 37.5 64.9 30.7 November (r) 127.9 102.1 0.9 1.2 23.7 12.5 30.0 54.5 30.9 December (r) 114.0 88.8 0.9 1.2 23.2 10.5 24.0 56.3 23.2 2000 -January (p) 106.9 81.9 0.9 0.7 23.4 8.1 17.5 55.7 25.7 Average RSE (%) 3 3 11 13 9 7 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - January 1778 1279 79 420 169 324 833 452 February 1738 1306 72 360 181 352 810 395 March 1654 1242 69 343 163 356 744 391 April 1572 1214 67 291 162 338 692 380 May 1591 1243 59 289 155 338 692 406 June 1641 1241 64 336 167 330 736 408 July 1641 1247 63 331 157 323 761 400 August 1619 1210 66 343 157 333 746 383 September 1506 1171 63 272 147 333 664 362 October 1594 1178 62 354 142 328 751 373 November 1612 1200 68 344 161 352 720 379 December (r) 1622 1228 70 324 166 327 732 397 2000 - January (p) 1763 1303 62 398 198 381 754 430 Average RSE (%) (Z) 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 1,612.3 1,187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 1999(r) 1,640.2 1,231.8 32.0 34.4 342.0 161.5 337.0 745.5 396.2 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 3 (Z) 1 1 (Z) 1 1999 - January 105.3 73.7 2.2 2.3 27.1 9.0 13.3 55.9 27.1 February 113.3 85.8 2.2 2.4 22.9 9.5 18.6 58.6 26.6 March 152.1 117.7 2.9 3.1 28.4 14.0 31.5 69.8 36.7 April 149.1 118.3 2.9 3.3 24.6 15.1 33.7 65.8 34.6 May 141.7 114.1 2.7 2.3 22.6 14.2 32.8 59.3 35.3 June 165.6 125.7 3.4 3.2 33.2 18.0 33.6 71.0 43.0 July 145.5 112.4 2.5 2.7 27.8 14.6 29.5 65.5 35.9 August 147.4 110.3 2.6 3.3 31.2 14.9 32.2 66.7 33.6 September 133.0 100.9 3.1 2.6 26.4 12.9 31.0 56.7 32.4 October 133.1 95.4 2.7 3.0 32.0 12.3 30.0 60.6 30.2 November 121.1 88.2 2.5 3.1 27.3 13.1 28.0 53.1 27.0 December (r) 117.1 82.8 2.3 2.9 29.1 11.8 21.0 54.5 29.8 2000 - January (p) 104.0 75.4 1.7 1.8 25.1 10.7 16.4 50.0 26.9 Average RSE (%) (Z) 1 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - January 135.3 76.1 2.8 56.4 16.6 18.1 75.3 25.3 November (r) 133.0 78.3 2.9 51.8 14.6 18.5 76.5 23.4 December (r) 139.5 79.8 3.9 55.8 15.6 16.2 78.9 28.7 2000 - January (p) 135.7 78.3 3.5 53.9 17.3 16.5 74.4 27.4 Average RSE (%) 3 4 8 5 13 8 4 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December).