How Socially Vulnerable Is Puerto Rico to Disasters?

New Community Resilience Estimates Show Almost Half of Puerto Rico Population Had Three or More Risk Factors

June 07, 2023

Written by:

Benjamin Gurrentz, James Scurry and Isabelle R. Notter

For the first time, the U.S. Census Bureau is releasing Community Resilience Estimates (CRE) for Puerto Rico — a measure of the commonwealth’s ability to withstand natural disasters and other challenges.

Restricted microdata from the 2019 1-year Puerto Rico Community Survey (PRCS) and small area estimation methods show Puerto Rico’s population had high levels of social vulnerability, indicating it would have trouble bouncing back in the event of a natural disaster.

Nearly half — 46.1% — of Puerto Rico’s population was estimated to have three or more risk factors ranging from poverty to age, more than double the estimated share (21.6%) of the stateside U.S. population in 2019.

All municipios in Puerto Rico showed high levels of social vulnerability compared to the United States but some had particularly high rates relative to the entire commonwealth.

This was the predominant risk group in Puerto Rico, followed by those with one-to-two risk factors (39.2%) and 0 risk factors (14.7%).

In addition, all municipios (municipalities or county-level equivalents) in Puerto Rico and 87.0% of census tracts (equivalent to neighborhoods) had higher rates of individuals with three or more risk factors compared to the U.S. estimate.

The CRE for Puerto Rico measures vulnerabilities based on 10 individual and household level risk factors:

Poverty status.
Number of caregivers in the households.
Unit-level crowding.
Educational attainment.
Employment.
Disability status.
Health insurance coverage.
Age (65+).
Vehicle access.
Broadband internet access.

Figure 1. Share of Population With Three or More Risk Factors: 2019

Municipios and Resilience

All municipios in Puerto Rico showed high levels of social vulnerability compared to the United States but some had particularly high rates relative to the entire commonwealth.

Those in Maricao (65.0%), Lajas (63.3%), Guánica (62.3%), Sabana Grande (57.0%), and Ciales (56.4%) had significantly higher rates of individuals with three or more risk factors compared to the entire Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.

Figure 2. Share of Population With Three or More Risk Factors, Municipio Level: 2019

A new interactive tool allows you to explore differences across the commonwealth.

About the CRE for Puerto Rico

The Community Resilience Estimates (CRE) for the United States, launched in 2020, is a resilience measure that identifies a community’s ability to endure, respond to and recover from disasters based on a list of 10 risk factors

The result is an index that produces aggregate-level (tract, municipio and state/commonwealth) estimates.

There are several main differences between the CRE for Puerto Rico and for the United States. First, the CRE for Puerto Rico uses an education risk factor (“no high school degree”) instead of a communication barrier risk factor (“no high school degree” or “speaks English less than very well”) since the English component is less necessary in Puerto Rico.

Second, there are some small area modeling differences pertaining to the available Population Estimates Program (PEP) data for Puerto Rico and how areas are modeled together based on level of urbanization.

About CRE

Rather than direct survey estimates, the CRE uses small area estimation methods that combine multiple data sources like the American Community Survey and PEP to improve data quality for smaller geographies.

More details are available in this quick guide.

Benjamin Gurrentz is a survey statistician and Community Resilience Team Lead in the Census Bureau’s Small Area Modeling and Development Branch.

James Scurry is a mathematical statistician in the Small Area Modeling and Development Branch.

Isabelle R. Notter is a survey statistician in the Small Area Estimates Branch.